CLASS CEILING
Hype of stellar upcoming free-agent crop may have hit ...
T HE 2018-19 f ree- agent class has been our f ine wine. We have been thinking about its quality for years, both patiently and impatiently awaiting its opening.
Except it generally has gotten worse, not better, with age.
This past week, one anticipated piece from that coming market, Charlie Blackmon, agreed to a six-year extension with the Rockies. Why he signed now says much about why some of the glamour might have gone out of the 2018-19 class.
Front offices have become less emotional and more calculating in their assessments ( see the recent free- agent freeze). So if a player is older, teams now are worried about long contracts for decline years that may include switches from prime positions to less demanding ones. Blackmon turns 32 in July, and his chances of staying in center for the life of a longterm deal are not great.
Teams also have gotten more granular in valuations, so, for example, a wide disparity in home/road splits — as the Coors-blessed Blackmon has — will impact offers more commonly.
The upcoming class may end up being about whether Bryce Harper and Manny Machado are bulletproof to this wave. Both turn just 26 this year. Both have injuries in their past, but Machado has been an ironman the past three years and Harper is the rare baseball player who transcends the sport.
Will they ultimately defy the current trend and sign 10-yearish deals for north of Giancarlo Stanton’s $325 million? Will they rewrite how mega-talents in their prime handle free agency and, say, satisfy organizations’ desires to avoid long-term risk by taking shorter deals with larger values — say something like four years at $160 million ($40 million per) and get another go at the market at 30?
Monitoring how they perform this year — Machado back at shortstop — is a game within the game.
But we should know by now that this 2018-19 class is like an organism that is shape-shifting constantly. At the most tragic, Jose Fernandez, died. Other star-level talents who would have been free this offseason signed long-term deals already — such as Sean Doolittle, Adam Eaton, Dee Gordon, Corey Kluber, Jose Quintana, Anthony Rizzo, Jean Segura, Andrelton Simmons and Julio Teheran.
SSeverall ffrom thithis pastt class l who expected multi-year deals but got just one-year contracts will be back in the market — such as Greg Holland, Jonathan Lucroy, Lance Lynn, Logan Morrison and Mike Moustakas.
Beyond Machado and Harper, here are a few walk-year players worth monitoring because they have so much to gain or lose:
1. MATT HARVEY
When this class was f irst assessed several years ago, he was near the front. But Tommy John and thoracic outlet surgeries plus questions about off-the-field behavior have cost him way more than innings.
He came to this season in better shape physically and seemingly in a better place mentally. Harvey has appeared to mesh well with new manager and pitching coach Mickey Callaway and Dave Eiland. The potential for a nine-figure deal is probably gone, but can he build trust again as a pitcher and person to garner significant multi-year offers?
2. JOSH DONALDSON
No free agent stands to lose as much to the shifting trends. Not long ago, his talent and track record would have netted a substantial long-term deal. But he will turn 33 next offseason. He is viewed as a strong-willed player, and not every organization might want to incorporate him at a time when teams are talking culture more than ever. He missed time last year with a calf injury and was briefly taken off third base this year for what the Blue Jays called a dead arm.
This is going to be about how much clubs believe a driven player can remain elite. RRemember,b hihis career OPS off .879 and OPS-plus of 139 have never been bettered in a single season yet by Machado.
Andrew McCutchen, 32 in October and already moved out of center field, and Daniel Murphy, 33 and opening the season on the disabled list, are among those walk-year talents who need to show they can maintain success with age.
3. DAVID PRICE
Neither Masahiro Tanaka nor Johnny Cueto opted out of big dollars remaining on their deals to jump into the past free agency — Tanaka, in part, because he has a pre-existing elbow concern. Price has four years at $127 million remaining and pre-existing concerns about his elbow. That, plus he turns 33 in August, plus his sketchy postseason history would suggest he is not going anywhere.
He has seemed to make peace with Boston, but what if that is just a façade and he wants out? Price opened this season with 14 shutout innings. Maybe $127 million is not possible, but could he pitch well enough to secure a high enough percentage of that to flee?
Clayton Kershaw has been viewed as the third star with Harper and Machado for the upcoming class. Since he has just two years at $65 million left, he has long been expected to opt out. But he has had a troublesome back condition plus the outside belief is he would only want to play for the Dodgers or his hometown-ish Rangers. He is just 30, but soon will pass 2,000 regular-season innings.
A word on those Dodgers — and Yankees. The anticipation has been that because both are working to get under the $197 million threshold and, thus, resett ththeiri ttax att a llower rate t beginning in 2019, that they will spend lavishly in the next market as they did not in this past one.
I suspect they will be a lot more active, but like everything involving this coming class, form keeps shifting. Harper was f itted for pinstripes for years, then the Yanks got Stanton and there no longer is an obvious corner outf i el d spot for him. Now, Machado is getting the pinstripe treatment. But Stanton, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez and, perhaps at some point, Gleyber Torres give t he Yanks substantial righty might , Bra n d o n Drury/Miguel Andujar provide under-control third base options, and Didi Gregorius is locked in at shortstop.
Of course, Machado would improve the quality of the roster (any roster), but I think the Yankees and Dodgers have gotten under to create flexibility in every way and do not immediately want to lock up their dollars again.
But perhaps their success or failure as teams this year — something else to monitor — will determine t heir appetite to spend in the coming class.