NL East flipped upside down
THE Marlins are who we thought they were (footnote to Dennis Green). The rest of the NL East — not so much. Even with two straight series wins to end last week, Miami is awful and on the road likely to worse. But once the Marlins traded away the game’s best outfield (Marcell Ozuna, Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich) plus Dee Gordon and did not refuel with major league talent, they were all but assured of finishing last. Nearly as certain, though, was that the Nationals would finish first. Washington was the two-time defending division champ and loaded. The Mets were talented, but vexed by bad health. The Braves and Phillies were rebuilding and seemed at least a year away. But one-sixth into this season, the Nationals join the Dodgers as the majors’ most disappointing clubs. Both were expected to be part of the Super Seven teams with the Yankees, Red Sox, Indians, Astros and Cubs. One scout said, “The Nationals are seeing how much they miss Daniel Murphy.” Without Murphy (after right knee surgery) all season plus Adam Eaton and Anthony Rendon more recently, opposing pitchers are treating Bryce Harper like prime-aged Barry Bonds (walks in 28.4 percent of his plate appearances; Joe Mauer was next highest at 22.5). Murphy is due back this month, and the Nationals have yet to play the Marlins; 19 of their final 110 games are against Miami. Nevertheless, at 12-16 through the weekend, the Nationals were fourth in the NL East. The Braves and Phillies were 16-11, 1 ¹ /2 games behind the Mets — that trio possessing three of the NL’s six best records. Is it sustainable? With the Mets, one scout said, “I believe they have a lot of offense coming from [Jay] Bruce, [Yoenis] Cespedes and [Michael] Conforto], so I think there is room for them to grow offensively.” But the expectation was that if the Nationals were to be challenged, it would be by a healthy version of the Mets. It is the Braves and Phillies who are surprises. One executive said, “Too little was made of it, but Philadelphia was trying to win more.” Only the Cubs spent more than the $169.25 million that the Phillies did in free agency. And Philadelphia has thrived, though of its four big free-agent buys, only Jake Arrieta has done well, while Tommy Hunter and Pat Neshek have missed most of this season to injury and Carlos Santana has struggled in the lineup.
Philadelphia is trending upward and has a willingness to spend to speed the process — there is strong belief within the game already the Phillies are going to be huge pursuers of Manny Machado next offseason.
But the Braves team that begins a three-game set at Citi Field on Tuesday might be better positioned for success now.
“I just see less holes and the potential for higher upside this year,” one scout said, echoing a common refrain I heard when asked about Braves versus Phillies.
Under new GM Alex Anthopoulos, the Braves did not give out a major league contract in free agency in the offseason. Anthopoulos said he did not want to make a major move without better knowing the system, thus, to avoid the potential for mistakes. Now, he actually credits the previous administrations of Frank Wren and John Hart for how much they left behind — namely Freddie Freeman on a teamfriendly contract, plus rising star Ozzie Albies and recently called up Ronald Acuna, roundly viewed as the game’s top prospect.
“The work done here before I walked in the door was outstanding,” Anthopoulos said by phone.
He fixated on upgrading depth with players such as Ryan Flaherty and Preston Tucker, and defensive efficiency.
“I knew we had talent, but I didn’t know which way we were going to go this year, but it is starting [to feel like a good team], no doubt about it,” Anthopoulos said. “It’s not just the wins and losses. It is the run differential. I am a big believer in that.”
The Braves were plus-38, second best in the NL. In 2015, when he ran the Blue Jays, Anthopoulos swung July trades for Troy Tulowitzki and David Price despite hovering near .500 and being six-to-eight games behind the Yankees because the team had an AL-best run differential, and Anthopoulos believed the record would soon reflect that stat. Toronto wound up racing by the Yankees to win the division.
These Braves are blessed with a deep system and needs in the pen, which walks too many, and short on righty power, unless Acuna can produce quickly or Jose Bautista, soon to be promoted to play third, finds a fountain of youth.
“If we are in contending position come July, I am open-minded to do things,” Anthopoulos said. “But it is May 1, July is far away.”
But one-sixth of the season is gone now, and the NL East is a surprise.