Chaos Theory
How Donald Trump out-Kimmed Kim Jong-un
PRESIDENT Trump’s North Korea strategy is to out-Kim Kim Jong-un — and so far, it’s working. More will be needed, however, to address China, the very sophisticated powerhouse behind Kim.
Trump managed to put North Korea on the defensive by flipping the script on Kim. In the past, the Kims were Lucy, and the football was always stolen from under our feet. Yet we learned nothing each time, so here we are: Kim’s ability to hit American soil is closer than ever to becoming a reality.
Past US presidents sent North Korea economic aid, removed Pyongyang from terrorist lists, organized six-party talks — even sent Secretary of State Madeline Albright to dance to traditional Korean music in Pyongyang.
Our ask — quit your nuke and missile programs, or at least open them to legitimate inspections — was never satisfactorily answered.
Enter Trump’s deal artistry. Trump didn’t bother studying the nuances of
Juche — the weird North Korean blend of Communist, fascist, tyrannical and isolationist governing philosophy. Instead, he employed his idiosyncratic one-size-fits-all approach to negotiations: Keep the other guy off-balance.
That’s just what the Kims have always done to us, and tried to do again, with conciliatory statements followed by threats and insults. Most recently, they skipped a Singapore meeting designed as a sort of rehearsal dinner to the summit’s intended nuptials.
Oops. This is a game Trump relishes. My chaos button is big
ger than yours, one can imagine him thinking. And in the summit — if it ever happens — Pyongyang for once will be at a disadvantage.
Saving face, Pyongyang’s top strategist, Gen. Kim Yong-chol, plans to come hat in hand to the belly of the beast.
Heavily sanctioned, this Kim (no relative of the leader) isn’t even supposed to travel outside North Korea. He was the brains behind the 2014 cyberattack on Sony and the 2010 sinking of the Cheonan, a South Korean ship, which killed 46 sailors.
Yet he’ll arrive in New York Wednesday, to try once again to outsmart Trump. But although he ran Pyongyang’s equivalent of the CIA, this Kim hasn’t traveled much outside the country. His understanding of the West is limited at best. Such provincial negotiators are no match for the mercurial Trump and his sophisticated, hawkish team.
Except many other players are involved here.
Like South Korea’s Moon Jae-in, the appeaser who believes that by convincing America to feed the North Korean crocodile, he’d eat South Korea last. On the other side is Japan’s Shinzo Abe, who is extremely skeptical of the whole summitry business and would rather America add some real muscle to the diplomacy. But mostly, it’s China. As Trump quickly noticed, Pyongyang’s recent tone-change for the worse came immediately after Kim Jong-un conferred with President Xi Jinping in Beijing. Xi was rightly tagged as the skunk in the summit’s genteel garden party.
True: Beijing wouldn’t mind some defanging of Kim. But its biggest fear is the regime’s collapse, which would flood China with North Korean refugees and, worse, deprive Xi of a buffer against US allies surrounding his country. He’s worried South Korea, Japan and others will unite against the neighborhood bully.
Which is why China wants to have some measure of control over the Kim-Trump summit. Beijing uses Pyongyang to advance its strategy of widening its global influence while weakening America.
To counter that, much more than a strategy of confusion is needed. Xi won’t easily fall for Trump’s creative chaos.
The president started with a brushback pitch: On Tuesday, Washington announced it was imposing tariffs on Chinese goods and barring China’s techstealing companies from investing in the United States.
Good. Especially after Trump’s earlier idea of saving jobs in China by easing sanctions on ZTE, its predatory tech giant. Trump tried honey to lure Xi to our side on North Korean diplomacy, and it didn’t work.
Instead, Trump will need vinegar: Reassert America’s naval dominance in the Pacific. Counter China’s aggression against neighboring allies’ territories. Arm Taiwan to deter Beijing from annexing it.
With enough sustained pressure, China may even try to appease Trump by further tightening the screws on North Korea.