PUBLIC ENEMY: THE NO. 1

Yanks at forefront of MLB trend of fewer fastballs

PERHAPS this can all be explained away like this: The Rockets did get within one victory of the NBA Finals and faltered because they did not have Chris Paul and lost to a historically special team that had an offensive DNA quite similar to Houston’s.

Yet it was hard to ignore that what the Rockets do to the extreme, shoot 3-pointers — more than any other team ever — is what undermined them in their most important game. At one point in losing Western Conference finals Game 7 to Golden State, Houston missed 27 consecutive 3s and made just 7-of-44 in all.

Why is a New York Post baseball columnist writing about this? Because I am wondering if you can live by the 3 and die by the 3 in the NBA, could you live by avoiding No. 1 in the majors and die by it as well?

Because to the extreme the Rockets shoot 3s, the Yankees’ staff avoids throwing fastballs.

Even as advanced analytics has shown hoisting 3s is statistically wise and the league-wide record for attempts now is broken annually, no team in NBA history took more per game (42.3) than this season’s Rockets — the second-place team in 2017-18 was the Nets at 35.7.

Even as advanced analytics has shown relying on off-speed stuff is wise and the league-wide record for lowest fastball percentage now is set annually, no team in MLB history has shunned the fastball like the Yankees. They throw heat 41.9 percent of the time, which is the lowest since Fangraphs began tracking in 2002. The second lowest t hi s year is the Tigers at 48 percent. The second lowest since 2002 is the 2017 Yankees (44.9 percent). The third lowest is the 2016 Yankees (47.4). See the trend? “The game plan is to not, not throw fastballs,” Yankees pitching coach Larry Rothschild insisted. “It is to make the best pitches that give us a chance to get outs.”

The Yanks did reach ALCS Game 7 last year — the equivalent of where the Rockets got — and coincidentally lost to Houston. As Warriors Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson got hot from 3 late in Sunday night’s Game 7, you might remember the Astros eliminated the Yanks with Lance McCullers throwing 24 straight curves to end ALCS Game 7.

Again, this is a league-wide trend. Hitters have attuned themselves to record velocity, plus the greater use of the launch-angle lift swing has made hitters more susceptible to fastballs up in the zone and breaking balls down.

Fastball usage in the majors was at 64.4 percent in 2002 and 55.6 percent now. But the Yanks have gone further than any team, particularly a rotation that throws fastballs 39.2 percent of the time (second fewest is the Indians at 46.5).

The Yanks do have the majors’ second-best record, but is there such a thing as a breaking point for too many breaking balls? It is particularly problematic in a playoff series when an opponent can familiarize and adapt, as the Warriors seemed to in defending the 3.

“It is what fits our staff,” Rothschild said. “It is not by design. We have some guys who are as good at commanding their breaking balls as their fastballs.”

But the Yanks’ 94.5 mph staff average fastball in both 2017 and 2018 are the two fastest since 2002. It helps to have Aroldis Chapman (at 99.8 mph, the hardestthrowing reliever over the past two seasons) and Luis Severino (at 97.6, the hardest-throwing starter).

Even those flamethrowers have decreased their fastball usage in each of the past two seasons, from 81.1 percent for Chapman in 2016 to 75.3 this year, and for Severino from 55.9 to 48.6. For the Yanks, though, the slowdown revolves heavily around CC Sabathia, Masahiro Tanaka and Sonny Gray — among starters they rank 1-2-3 in lowest fastball percentage (minimum 40 innings).

Sabathia has created a career second act by remaking himself from a challenge-you mentality to a starter who relies more on cutters, movement and precision (especially inside). In his 2009 Yankees debut, Sabathia averaged 94.2 mph with his fastball and threw it 61.6 percent of the time. This season he was averaging 89.7 and his 17.9 percent usage was second lowest by a non-knuckleballing qualified starter since 2002.

But Sabathia is 37. Gray, 28, and Tanaka, 29, should be in their primes. Gray’s average fastball is 93 mph, the same as his 2013 rookie year with the A’s. Yet, he is throwing the pitch half as often — 64.6 percent to 32.1. Tanaka averaged 91.7 mph with his fastball in his 2014 Yankees debut and 91.2 now. Yet his usage has dropped from 40.6 to 28.1. Both pitchers often seem to be desperate to avoid contact.

Gray’s walk rates have risen each of the past two seasons to 11.9 percent of those he faces, eighth worst among starters. His lack of aggression and inability to harness his breaking stuff is overt. Tanaka’s walk percentage has risen annually to a still acceptable 6.7. But he has surrendered 1.8 homers per nine innings over the past two seasons, the most for anyone with at least 35 starts. Throw enough sliders and splits — and Tanaka throws one or the other about 65 percent of the time — and a few will hang delectably.

So, would Gray, Tanaka and, perhaps, the whole staff benefit from at least ebbing toward more traditional fastball usage? Would the Rockets have benefit ted from having the mentality to shoot more traditional 2-pointers when the 3 was awry?

The modern math says no. The eyeball test disagrees. I wonder if the Yankees’ No. 1 problem is not calling No. 1 enough.