‘Futures’ looking bleak
THE U.S. Open and World Cup both begin Thursday. They share something else in common. Futures prices that don’t offer much betting value.
Let’s look at prices for the top contenders in each event, along with the equivalent win percentages. We’ll start with the U.S. Open, as that event gets under way earlier in the day.
Those five popular choices by themselves gobble up 34 percent in win probability. And there are 156 players entered! The trick is, sports books build a universe much larger than 100 percent to create a house edge. As a result, any individual golfer is extremely unlikely to offer “true odds,” let alone betting value. Your choice might end up winning. Your payoff won’t reflect the magnitude of your accomplishment given the size of the field.
The top five choices represent 92 percent of the win equivalent before you even get to other contenders like Belgium, England, Portugal, and several other spoilers in the 32-team field. You probably could just wait for the knockout round before jumping in with these teams. Futures prices won’t have changed much because assumptions to qualify are already baked into the numbers.
An alternative to consider as the knockouts begin: Bet your preferred team to advance on game-by-game money lines, rolling over your investment each round. That approach will usually yield a better return than betting futures prices.
Jeff Fog le writes V Si N’ s free daily newsletter covering the sports betting markets. SubscribeatVSiN.com/newsletter.