That’s Eflin great!
Philly hurler morphs into fantasy find
There is no better feeling in fantasy sports than finding the gem in the rough, the streaming option who develops into being an everyday option. It seems they’re few and far between, but if you look carefully, you’ll find them hiding in plain sight.
Zach Eflin is 6-2 with a 3.02 ERA, 57 strikeouts, 14 walks, a 1.129 WHIP and a .236 opponent ave ra ge, despite going 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA in May.
In June, Eflin didn’t allow more than two runs to score in any of his f ive starts, going 5-0 with a 1.76 ERA, 28:6 strikeoutto-walk rate and a .218 opponent average. He did this against the Cubs, Brewers (twice), Nationals and Yankees.
From his previous big league experience, there was no indication he was capable of this type of consistent performance, considering he was 4-10 with a 5.85 ERA over 22 career starts from 2016-17.
So, is this just an mid-level starter who has hit a hot stretch, or an emerging fantasy option? Roto Rage believes it’s the latter.
In his first two seasons, Eflin never really was healthy. The 24-year-old once said he had suffered knee pains since he was really young. He had surgery in 2016 to repair the patellar tendons in both knees, and he also missed some time with a shoulder issue, so we’re now seeing a healthy pitcher with the ability to become a fantasy rotation mainstay.
Eflin is throwing harder than ever. In 2016 and 2017, according to Brooks Baseball, his fastball averaged 92-93 mph. This year, his four-seamer is averaging 95 mph, which is in the top 30 among all starters.
He is striking out a career-high 9.1 per nine innings while keeping his walks in check (2.2 per nine). His strikeout-to-walk percentage (18.5) ranks 30th out of starting pitchers who h ave t h rown 50 innings or more. He also ranks 39th in strikeout rate (24.5 percent) and is also among the top 30 starters in WHIP (26th) and ERA (22nd), according to Frangraphs.
Eflin’s FIP (2.85) and BABIP (.295) don’t appear to indicate regression will rear its ugly head, either. This looks like a young pitcher finding his way on a upand-coming team.
There is no reason Eflin should be available in 55 percent or more of ESPN or Yahoo leagues, but he is. Expect his ownership to increase, especially since his next two starts likely will be against the Orioles and Mets, two of the worst offenses in the game. Don’t wait to add him.
Here are some other hurlers, owned in 50 percent or less of leagues, who deserve a look:
Mike Leake has pitched 22 games as a Mariner, and he is 11-5 with a 3.67 ERA (his lowest with any of the four teams he’s been on), 6.0 strikeouts per nine and just 1.7 walks per nine innings. He is 8-4 with a 4.01 ERA and 66 strikeouts for the season, and 5-1 with a 2.74 ERA and .230 opponent average over his past 10 starts (he lowered his ERA from 6. 28 to 4.01 in that span). He isn’t going to blow opponents away with his stuff, but he is dependable.
In three starts this month, Cleveland’s Shane Bieber (the second-most added pitcher in ESPN leagues this week) was 3-0 with a 0.96 ERA, 21 strikeouts and just three walks. His next two starts should come against the Royals and the Reds, before a game against the Yankees where he likely should be on the bench.