ENGLISH LEAGUE
Brits lose Cup to Brazil in Goldman model
Batten down the hatches. The award-winning chief economist at Goldman Sachs who made notable calls on the global financial crisis has shaken up soccer, using super computers and math to predict England will play its first World Cup final in over 50 years when it goes up against Brazil on July 15.
“For England fans who might find themselves daring to dream, our model predictions might constitute a beacon of hope,” Jan Hatzius — a native of Germany who sadly saw his home team, the defending champions, booted out in the first round — wrote in a note last week.
Hatzius’ predictive model, frequently updated, set off a flurry of excitement and wild gambling across the globe last week.
Goldman’s “probability of winning” scale showed five-time winner Brazil better placed than England against a variety of outcomes that together “do not alter the model’s central projection that Brazil will beat England in the final.”
“Let’s hope they are right,” Joshua Mahony, a market analyst at IG in London, told The Post, pointing out that England is at least within striking distance of FIFA glory. And like many in finance, and for the business high rollers packing the stadiums in Russia, Mahony saw the upside for markets.
“The prospect of an England ver- sus Brazil final provides a potential bounty across a whole host of sectors within the UK economy, from supermarkets to food delivery services,” he said. “One big winner from the event would be Nike, whose sponsorship of both teams would ensure that sales are elevated and advertising exposure is maximized.”
Peter Oppenheimer, global equity strategist at Goldman, said the winning country should see the ripple effects of the “feel-good factor” in higher domestic stock prices, lasting several weeks.
Meanwhile, sports bars in New York said the games are pulling in many ex-pats following their teams on the big screens. “We’re busy for sure, and now we’re expecting plenty of English and Brazil fans,” said Jennifer, hostess at the Football Factory at Legends on West 33rd Street.