Severino beating (& possibly breaking the system)

LUIS Severino will take the mound Sunday night for the Yankees in their series finale against the Red Sox, which will be televised nationally by ESPN.

Severino continues to be a big story in betting circles, because his odds strike many old school bettors as “too high.” Yet the Yankees continue to win almost all of his starts. They are 15-2 with Severino on the mound. That’s equivalent to -750 on the money line.

Has the fact that Severino throws quality innings (2.10 ERA, 0.86 WHIP) before handing off to three great relievers “broken” how money lines should be calculated? That’s an important issue for bettors to resolve because MLB is trending toward emphasizing relievers earlier and earlier in games.

Look at the final scores in Severino’s past nine starts, beginning with the most recent and working backward ...

That’s a combined scoreboard win of 42-19. Opponents are barely averaging more than two runs per game vs. the Severino/bullpen brick wall. Classic analytic formulas that turn run differential into money lines say 42-19 is the equivalent of roughly -500. Again, way above recent prices.

Analysts must determine if this is just an extended fluke, or a new reality of what can happen in this sport when a Cy Young candidate starter is backed by elite finishers and supported by a high-quality offense. Lately, what seemed like high prices weren’t high enough.

Let’s see if the market properly captures Severino’s big test vs. the potent Boston offense.