Annoyance probability of stat graphics reaches new heights

MORE than a year ago, when it first came across an ESPN shot-caller’s desk, it should’ve been passed around the office just for the laughs.

Instead, ESPN, as if its MLB telecasts weren’t littered enough with clutter and blather, added it to the rest of the nonsense: “catch probability,” the percentage of any given, just-seen fly ball being caught.

As we know, there are so many real-time, impossibleto-calibrate, let alone estimate, variables — the skill of the fielder, the fielder’s day-of health (eyes to feet), wind, sun, rain, the flight angle of the ball, whether the outfielder will try to catch with one or both hands, whether he’s being called off, score and inning circumstances — that such a stat would be rejected as bad satire — of ESPN. ESPN added it. Nothing can any longer be what it self-evidently is: A good catch, a great catch, a late-break catch, a can-ofcorn catch, a non-catch despite a good try, an error.

Everything must now be attached to a pure-science graphic, number and ensuing discussion — no matter how misleading, inaccurate, worthless and needless.

And because no bad idea is unworthy of duplication and perpetuation, such catch probability percentages have been added — along with the irrelevant live-play strike zone box, exit velocities and launch angles — to YES’ Yankees telecasts.

So, Brett Gardner, who just made a nice running catch, had a 32 percent chance to catch that ball.

As opposed to what? Falling down? Wisely playing it on a hop given the game’s circumstances? Ordering Thai food?

Based on what? On all moments in time being exactly the same for everyone, every time?

In 2004, when Carlos Beltran was playing outfield for the Astros, he made a spectacular forward-diving catch with the bases loaded. Had the ball bounced past him, all three runners likely would have scored.

On national TV, the analyst — I forget who it was — said Beltran “just saved three runs.”

That was one way to look at it. He also might have caused three runs. In making that catch, he hadn’t played the far-higher percentages. And that same analyst could legitimately have knocked him for making a good try but a rotten “catch probability” decision.

And here all you wanted to do was sit down to try to watch — try to enjoy — a ballgame.