Metrics suggest surprising Braves are legit
Few expected the Braves to contend in 2018. Betting markets projected them to battle the Phillies for third and fourth place in the NL East, well behind the Nationals and even the Mets. Regularseason win totals for Over/Under betting in Las Vegas and offshore were in the range of 75-76 wins.
The Braves were supposed to be losers for the fifth straight season.
Atlanta could still crash hard down the stretch and post another losing record. But as the Braves approach one of their toughest tests of the season — a three-game series against the Yankees that begins Monday night in The Bronx — they look to be legitimate contenders. The Braves have:
A positive run differential that represents playoff caliber, and is well above the rest of the NL East.
A road ERA that’s been in the upper half of the NL since early on. That’s a great indicator stat for pitching quality because it’s not influenced by home-stadium pollution.
A park-adjusted offense that has ranked among the best in the NL all season (using weighted runs created-plus from Fan Graphs, that accounts for home-park influences).
Maybe it’s a three-month mirage, but Atlanta was one of the most profitable betting teams in baseball through June because of superior pitching and offense.
If you’ve missed out so far on the Braves bandwagon, at least make some time to scout this team against the Yankees Monday through Wednesday. Perhaps a fireworks show will continue deep into 2018 for an up-and-comer that the markets overlooked. The Yankees had better not overlook them, in an obvious letdown spot off a rivalry series versus Boston.