It Can End Well
What a good deal with Putin would look like
PRESIDENT Trump will meet with Vladimir Putin in Helsinki on July 16, and that gives rise to three questions: Should they be meeting at all? What are the non-negotiables for Putin? What’s in it for us?
To answer the first: It’s always useful to talk to an adversary. That’s why we met with the Soviet leaders at summits before the fall of Communism. It’s also why Trump met with Kim Jong-un. Jaw, jaw is better than war, war, as Harold Macmillan once said.
Second: Putin has three nonnegotiables. He wants an end to US interference in Russian affairs. Before Russian trolls monkeyed with our 2016 presidential election, the Obama administration had supported Russian NGOs that opposed Putin during a Russian election. In other words, as he sees it, we started it. Trump has pledged noninterference in the internal affairs of other countries, so this would be an easy concession for him.
Crimea is another non-negotiable for Putin. If we drew a line in the sand over it, there’d be no point to the meeting. It’s not much bigger than Vermont, but it’s extremely important to Russians for historical, cultural and strategic reasons. Over 400,000 Russians died in the 1853-56 Crimean War. Leo Tolstoy wrote about his service in the war, Pushkin was exiled to Crimea and Chekhov wrote “The Cherry Orchard” there.
It’s where Soviet-era tourists used to spend their summer vacations, and where the Russian Black Sea fleet is berthed. Since Moscow’s invasion, the Russian parliament has formally admitted the Crimea into Russia.
The other thing off the table for Putin is the Russian naval facility in Syria and a seat at the table in the resolution of the Syrian conflict. We might not like this, but the time to have objected was when Obama drew a red line in Syria and then erased it. Since then we’ve tacitly recognized Russian interests in the region.
If all that is too much to swallow, Trump should save himself the plane ticket. But if not, let’s think about what’s in it for us.
In every way he could think of, Putin has been messing with the West, from interfering in our election, to military provocations, to the murders of Russians abroad, to the war in eastern Ukraine. None of this is of core Russian interest, however, and it’s all on the table. It’s also in our interest to see this resolved.
It’s been wondered whether, under Trump, America has abandoned its post-World War II role as the leader of the free world. Helsinki could make it clear that we’re back, if Putin agrees to stop his saber-rattling and ends his proxy war in Ukraine.
Mind you, Trump is all about “America First,” and he’s going to be chiefly interested in what’s in it for us. The answer is Iran. Under the mullahs it’s our real permanent enemy, and it’s the big exception to Trump’s promise of noninterference. We’d like to do all we can to destabilize the regime, and the Russians can help.
We have one thing to offer Putin that he truly craves — legitimacy, both at home and abroad. That is what an understanding with America would give him, and in return we’ll want an end to Russian military sales to Iran and support for our withdrawal from the nuclear deal with that country.
If Putin wants legitimacy, that’s the price of admission. It’s time for him to choose sides.
Does that mean we’re to take a leap of faith over this? In a May 2016 speech Trump recognized that some people say you can’t trust the Russians. But I intend to find out, he added. As we engage with Putin, then, we’ll see if he amends his thuggish ways.
For while Putin is indeed a thug, it’s important to distinguish between intelligent and stupid thugs. An intelligent thug misbehaves only when he can get away with it, and provided we don’t flinch — as Obama did with his red line — we can enter into an entente with the Russians that over time is self-enforcing.
There’s one last thing to be said about Helsinki. It’s happening at a time when some people still worry about whether Trump colluded with the Russians before the election. To them, Trump hurls the summit. You think I had a deal with Putin? Prove it! I know you can’t. To Robert Mueller, he says we both know you have nothing. Now wrap it up.
This isn’t something a guilty person would do.
F.H. Buckley is the author of the forthcoming “The Republican Workers Party: How the Trump Victory Drove Everyone Crazy, and Why It Was Just What We Needed.”