Bracket challenge Favorite Brazil may have toughest road to the title

After a brief respite, the 2018 World Cup resumes Friday with a pair of quarterfinal matchups. Before the knockouts began, we presented our “market” Power Ratings for the 16 finalists. Let’s update those for the Final 8.

These assessments are presented on a “goal supremacy” scale that allows you to project future pricing. Estimates are based on current market prices using three-way betting, “odds to advance” money lines and goal lines with adjusted vigorish to create a decimal representation of the distance between two teams.

There’s so much relative parity among the elites that teams are separated by fractions of a goal in any given game.

Markets are fluid in the hours before kickoff, so the numbers you’re looking at Friday morning may have moved from the chart above.

Brazil will likely be laying less than half a goal to Belgium, would lay less than half a goal vs. France, but more than half a goal vs. Uruguay in the semifinals.

Brazil would be at least a half-goal favorite in the finals over any entry from the lower half of the bracket.

Of the teams getting the most respect in futures prices, England has the easiest pathway to the final. Russia has the easiest pathway for any Cinderella.

Brazil deserves to be the favorite based on talent. Just remember that the best team isn’t always the best bet after you consider the impact of pathways on pricing.

Enjoy the quarterfinals. We’ll update these again before next week’s semifinals.