Key questions lingering for mighty lineup
WHEN it comes to the Yankees, most of July will be focused upon starting pitching. Moaning about what they have — show some aggressiveness, Sonny Gray. And craving what they don’t — how about the whole Triple-A roster for Jacob deGrom?
It is the Yankees’ greatest area of need, the one that most imperils outdoing the Red Sox to win the AL East.
Yet, perhaps for the final time in July 2018, let’s do a deeper dive into an offense that, despite averaging the majors’ secondmost runs, creates tons of questions regarding whether it is too reliant on homers and too incapable with runners in scoring position. As much as they need a starter to beat out Boston, the Yankees cannot afford a malfunction on offense, because the only team averaging more runs a game than them is the Red Sox.
1. Do the Yankees have a homer problem or a home problem? Everything is by comparison, and the Yanks’ road numbers hold up well against the competition.
But when it comes to slash lines, the Yankees essentially are Reggie Jackson’s career (.262/.356/.490) at home (.261/.346/.479) and Dave Kingman’s career (.236/.302/.478) on the road (.238/.308/.445). At home, the Yankees walk 11.3 percent of the time and whiff 23.2 percent; Reggie’s career was 12.0 and 22.7. On the road, they walk 8.3 percent of the time and whiff 23.4; Kingman’s career was 8.2 and 24.4.
So, they are a Hall of Fame masher at home and the symbol for all-or-nothingness on the road. Despite becoming more rightycentric, the Yankees still feast on the short porch, in part because brutes such as Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton can hit pop-ups that go out. At 33-13, the Yanks have the majors’ best home record.
The Yanks are 23-15 on the road, the .605 winning percentage the majors’ third-best. Is that sustainable with a Kingman-esque attack? It better be because only the Dodgers (37) have played fewer road games than the Yanks (38). After this homestand, 43 of the Yanks’ final 75 games (57.3 percent) are on the road.
2. Is the Yankees’ lineup as deep as we perceive? I ran a search of which teams have the most players with at least 100 plate appearances and an OPS above MLB average factoring league and park.
No surprise, the Cubs and Dodgers led with 10. Total shock that the Mets had eight and the Yanks seven. Now, the Mets’ eight includes players such as Jose Bautista and Kevin Plawecki, who barely scrape beyond 100 plate appearances, plus Yoenis Cespedes, who I believe last played with Tommie Agee and — more importantly — does not include Jay Bruce, Todd Frazier and Amed Rosario, all well south of average.
The Yanks’ overall OPS was 12 percent better than league average, second in the majors. But did this exercise reveal 1) some softness in the Yankees’ lineup or 2) that the Yankees have more coming because players such as Greg Bird, Brett Gardner and Gary Sanchez were not far below 100, plus Neil Walker was way off the total at 42? From 2010-17, Walker was a metronome who produced an OPS from 6-26 percent better than league average — albeit in a more expanded role than with the Yankees. With Gleyber Torres on the DL, Walker is likely about to get his last best chance to prove he is still that metronome.
3. Is there more from Bird or Maas? Bird has drawn many comparisons to Nick Johnson — a lefty-hitting first baseman with power and patience who just couldn’t stay healthy enough to fully exploit those skills. But is there some Kevin Maas, too — an initial bolt of homer/on-base excellence followed by disappointment?
I continue to believe in Bird. He is young, still just 25, born in the same year (1992) as Judge and Sanchez. I can’t dismiss that during the ALCS last year, Astros personnel kept pointing to Bird as their most worrisome at-bat.
And I see performances like Sunday in which his line (1-for-4 with an RBI single) obscures one good at-bat after another: Two full counts, one after falling behind 0-2; three balls hit 100 mph or better; the one that wasn’t was a 93.5 liner and came at 1-2 against a left-on-left, 95-mph fastball from Luiz Gohara.
We have wondered about which lefty, Bird or Didi Gregorius, would break up Judge and Stanton in the lineup. It might be switch-hitter Aaron Hicks, more and more having a Bernie Williams 2.0 season.
But Bird is a fulcrum player for how good this offense can be. Remember that it took him a few weeks last year after a long DL stint from a foot injury to get it going late in the season and into the playoffs.
For this Yankees offense to max out, Bird needs to finally be consistent with health and strong performance.