Stalling on rebuild more of the same
THE MOST important valuation for the Mets is not of Jacob deGrom or Noah Syndergaard, it is of the New York Mets, circa now (not to be confused with circus now, which is what it too often feels like around this franchise).
If the Mets believe they have the core of a high-level contender, then you retain deGrom and Syndergaard, max out the obvious trade candidates between now and 4 p.m. on July 31 and reassemble in Port St. Lucie next February ready to go for it.
And that is where I believe the Mets are at right now, still trying to convince themselves — or is it con themselves? — that if Yoenis Cespedes were only healthy and Jay Bruce were performing at more of a career norm and Michael Conforto would not have regressed, then even now, after a 3-0 loss to the Rays on Sunday, they would be in the scrum with the Braves, Nationals and Phillies atop the NL East.
But not long ago, all was going to be peachy if they could just get their starters healthy. It hasn’t been perfect. Matt Harvey is a Red, Syndergaard has been on the DL, but for the most part the Mets have received top-five-in-the-NL rotation work and yet they are still swimming with the Marlins.
This essentially comes down to this — the Mets don’t want to endure a rebuild, so have decided they don’t need one. They would rather determine a bogeyman that leveled their season. This is their way to ignore if major overhauls are needed to personnel or culture.
Their rotation let them down in the collapse of 2007 so they got Johan Santana. Their bullpen let them down in 2008 so they got Francisco Rodriguez. They were unhinged by injuries last year so they got new medical personnel and protocols and a more modern manager whose job it would be to better protect the arms.
I get it. The hardest honesty is often with yourself. And the Mets are finding it difficult to admit the double-down with the group that brought disaster last year has brought even more of it this season. But it sure does sound like they are going to double-down again.
In a phone conversation Saturday before the Rays-Mets game, assistant GM John Ricco talked about wanting to see what the club looks like, as in the next week-plus Syndergaard, Jay Bruce, Yoenis Cespedes and Jason Vargas return, and if Michael Conforto and perhaps Kevin Plawecki could play better in the second half. This is being echoed throughout the front office. But that is at best a snapshot, and bad organizations make decisions off of snapshots.
The big picture is that since the beginning of last year the Mets have the majors’ fifth-worst record. Cespedes has shown he is the kind of player you date one year at a time, you don’t marry for the long term. Bruce is part of too many players on the wrong side of their career at a time when the farm is far from bringing consistent young riches. And, again, this is when deGrom, Steven Matz and Zack Wheeler are humming. Do you believe that will continue the rest of this season and into next?
Ricco is saying the Mets would have to be “overwhelmed” to trade deGrom or Syndergaard and that reads like establishing a price that no one can meet as a decisionmaking ploy. The Mets specifically don’t want to trade deGrom and are more open on Syndergaard, which I find backward. DeGrom is older, closer to free agency and is never going to have higher value than now. It doesn’t mean trading him, but it sure means being open to the possibility.
Syndergaard is making a rehab start Sunday in Brooklyn. The Mets have been smartly cautious with the righty, who probably was ready to pitch a week ago, maybe more. Now, he can make maybe four starts before the deadline. I asked executives for four contenders if that was enough to get the Mets full value for a pitcher that talented and just one said yes and with the proviso, “He’d have to look totally like himself and we would have to do an unreal deep dive into his medicals.”
Syndergaard has three years of service time until free agency after this season. His value would be built best with a healthy second half. And Ricco acknowledged that the Mets do not see July 31 as a deadline to move deGrom or Syndergaard, that if they are never “overwhelmed” they could revisit this in the offseason.
And the signs now are that is most likely. That for this July the Mets will try to see if, in particular, they can find more athletic position players (there is focus on second base) with an emphasis on helping the big club sooner than later. They are going to try to do this with Jeurys Familia, Asdrubal Cabrera, Wilmer Flores and perhaps Wheeler.
They are going to continue to operate as if the last two years are an aberration and the truth about this group of Mets players adds up to a contender.