IN THE INTERESTS OF BASEBALL
Hardball’s midseason look at diamond’s most intriguing people
THIS IS THE first-ever comparison of Bryce Harper to Jeb Bush, but please stick with me.
Well before the presidential election of 2016, Bush was perceived as the front- runner for, at minimum, t he Republican nomination. But once the primaries began and Donald Trump and the pressure to perform emerged, Bush collapsed. The nomination that seemed preordained vanished.
We have been thinking about Harper’s free agency for a presidential cycle, imagining what someone as young, talented and represented by Scott Boras would get — $300 million? $400 million? $500 million? He was the front-runner to be the highest-paid player ever.
But then the full impact of baseball modernity — shifts and hot- and- cold zones — and the pressure of walk year struck and, well, Harper has been tied to low batting average (. 213) as surely as Bush was to low energy.
Harper, in 2018, symbolizes his team. The Nationals, expected to run away with the NL East, began the weekend a third-place, . 500 team. Harper was 43rd in the majors in OPS (.836), and his 0.1 Wins Above Replacement was tied for 308th.
The debate who is better, Harper or Mike Trout, feels more dated now than Menudo, and more and more it seems as if Harper has slipped behind Manny Machado for who will be paid more as a free agent this coming offseason.
Of course, there are more primaries remaining for Harper to regain his full status and worth. The Home Run Derby and AllStar Game are in Harper’s home park. The second half still beckons. Harper is just 25, younger than Aaron Judge.
In a phone conversation, Harper’s representative, Boras, noted that the way his client is walked (only Mike Trout has a higher percentage) reflects the fear/esteem opponents still have for him. Harper’s hard-hit rate and homer percentage are at or better than career norms.
What has risen is his strikeout rate and the percentage of shifts against Harper (21.6 percent of his plate appearances last year, 59.9 this season), which has drained his batting average.
“We know there are ebbs and flows even for superstars,” Boras said. “Look at the totality of circumstances, look at his age. Why is he being walked at the same rate as Mike Trout? The answer is power. The hard-hit component. Managers and coaches see that. They are fearful of that talent and are not going to let the talent beat them.”
Harper is going to have to use these primaries to prove his approaching free agency is not suffocating him, and by proxy his whole team. He will have to figure out how to thrive regardless of the shifts that Boras says are debilitating all lefty hitters.
No person in t he majors has more to gain or l ose t he rest of t he way t han Harper, which i s why he ranks No. 1 on our midseason Most Interesting People i n the Game:
2 MANNY MACHADO
He has not done t he walk- year wilt. Machado is having his best season, at least offensively, after switching from state-of-the-art defensive third baseman to something less than that at shortstop. He might be the best position player ever dealt at the trade deadline, and whichever team gets him — Brewers, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Indians, etc. — should i mprove its championship chances.
3 ORIOLES FRONT OFFICE
Baltimore has to try to maximize Machado, Brad Brach, Zach Britton and Adam Jones — all in their walk year — before 4 p.m., July 31. Then, will the O’s
go further and in a market dying for starters include Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman plus talented reliever Mychal Givens? But the bigger question is who is making the decisions and what does it mean for the near future?
GM Dan Duquette and manager Buck Showalter also are free agents after this year, and after a good run of success, the Orioles have the majors’ worst record and an unpromising f uture. Brady Anderson is a behindthe-scenes power. Owner Peter Angelos is fading, but are either of his two sons, John or Louis, rising? No team has more to do in the next few weeks with more uncertainty about just who is doing it.
4 METS FRONT OFFICE
All early July signs are that the Mets are saving for another day — in the offseason and probably with a new GM — whether to trade Jacob deGrom or Noah Syndergaard. But t hey have work to do, namely maximizing closer Jeurys Familia in a trade. Plus, the three-headed GM of Omar Minaya, John Ricco and J. P. Ricciardi all have futures at stake— as does Mickey Callaway, who is having by far the worst debut of any of the six rookie managers p lus interim Reds skipper Jim Riggelman. And this is a moment when Wilpon ownership must again l ook i nto a mirror and ask tough quest ions about why, during its reign, does the team keep devolving into the kind of pit the Mets are once again in.
5 SHOHEI OHTANI
Recently back as a DH after missing just a month with a Grade 2 UCL sprain in his right elbow. The early indicators are his ligament was in good shape. But good enough to pitch again this year? Or play both sides of the ball regularly ever again? How many high-end power starters have gone long careers without needing Tommy John surgery in the past 30 years — Nolan Ryan, Justin Verlander and …
6 ROB MANFRED
Attendance is down for 21 of 30 teams and in total is likely to fall under 70 million for the f irst time since 2003. Concern has persisted about the lack of ball-in-play action, with teams collectively batting . 246 (the lowest since 1972).
Manfred wants to institute rules such as a pitch clock and perhaps tinker with shifts, but he finds old guard fans who do not want the game changed further and a union that is not exactly a willing partner. The commissioner is in the always precarious spot of having to sell that the product is great as ever while knowing significant alterations are needed to attract wider interest and passion.
7 GIANCARLO STANTON
Stanton has much in common with Alex Rodriguez. He came to the Yankees after winning the MVP for a noncontend- er that wan ted to get rid of what at the time was the largest contract in the majors. Rodriguez had issues adapti ng to New York and the Yankees initially. A-Rod had an excell ent s eason, but not up to his previous standards, and his esteem among Yankees fans rose and dipped all year, until a f inal dip when he became t he face of the Yankees’ blowing a three-games-to-none lead against the Cursebreaking Red Sox in the 2004 ALCS. The Yanks and Red Sox are tangled in a seismic AL East chase this year and could meet again in the playoffs, and Stanton is already rising and falling in the fans’ view.
8 CLAYTON KERSHAW
Thing I was never prepared to ask: Would you invest more this offseason in Kershaw or Charlie Morton as a free agent? Kershaw is one of the great pitchers ever, but has been on the DL four times in the past three seasons, twice this year — three times in all for back issues. He can opt out of the final two years at $65 million on his contract after 2018. The lefty has been good when he pitches this season, but not to his track record great. The Dodgers probably need great to win their first World Series since 1988.
9 MATT HARVEY
Like Harper, there was a time when his free agency after this season was largely anticipated. He has pitched far better as a Red than a Met, recently getting his fastball/slider combo in such good order that Cincinnati will probably be able to trade him for a couple of useful prospects.
10 ROBINSON CANO
While Cano has been suspended 80 games for violating MLB’s joint drug agreement, the Mariners have posted the majors’ best record (34-15), and GM Jerry Dipoto has said the plan is not to shift Dee Gordon off of second when Cano returns, in part because part of the ban includes the postseason. Cano is scheduled to begin a minor league rehab assignment and rejoin Seattle on Aug. 14. Is he a second baseman? First baseman? DH? Is he effective? How is he treated by teammates, fans and history?