THOR & MORE
Weekend bets on Noah and Croats — but not against the G.O.A.T.
IT’S Friday the 13th, but don’t let that deter you from a trip to the nearby legal sports books. Gamblers should be relying more on the odds of probability than some silly superstition, so with that in mind here’s our Weekend Betting Guide to help you manage your time as well as your money. All odds are from William Hill as of Thursday (subject to change; always check for current odds).
FRIDAY
This is a light day (unless you’re really into NBA summer league in Vegas) with no day baseball, so it mostly should be a day of planning your weekend bets. I know a lot of you will be wanting to bet the Yankees at Cleveland, but I believe the better bet will be the Mets over the Nationals in the return of Noah Syndergaard against a struggling Tanner Roark. Tennis, anyone? Well, if you want to bet the Wimbledon women’s singles final at 9 a.m. Saturday, it’s best to get your bet in Friday night. Personally, I’m sitting this one out with Serena Williams a short (by her standards) -210 favorite over Angelique Kerber, as I would need more than +180 to fade the G.O.A.T.
SATURDAY
England and Belgium meet in the World Cup’s third-place game at 10 a.m. This is similar to betting the NBA All-Star Game or the Pro Bowl, where defense is optional. The 10 third-place games since 1978 have averaged 4.1 goals with at least three scored in each game, so you should either bet the Over or pass, and I believe there’s value in the Over as oddsmakers set it at 3 (not over adjusted as much as I feared they might).
This is written before the Wimbledon men’s semifinals on Friday, but hopefully Novak Djokovic is in Sunday’s final — and hopefully you’re holding a ticket on him at around +550 from our June 29 Weekend Betting Guide. If not, you can join the bandwagon on him Sunday, though I’m sure many holding Djokovic tickets will opt to hedge their bets to lock in a profit. I let my bets ride versus Rafael Nadal and will do so again Sunday if still alive.
SUNDAY
The marquee sporting (and betting) event of the weekend is the World Cup final at 11 a.m. I’ve been high on Croatia since its 3-0 rout of Argentina in the second game of the group stage. Croatia has won its past three games in extra time (twice on penalty kicks and then in extra time over England). I wouldn’t talk anyone out of taking the +230 for the draw after 90 minutes plus injury time, or on Croatia to win the title, but I believe the best bet is Croatia +1/2 (-105). That bet cashes if the Croats win in regulation or if it’s tied; that way, if they go to extra time for the fourth straight game, you’ll already have a winner in your pocket.
There’s no Sunday Night Baseball game due to the All-Star break, so you can head home early ....
BACK TO THE FUTURES?
... but don’t leave before getting down on some upcoming events.
Home Run Derby odds weren’t up on Thursday, but should be by the end of the weekend. I’m looking to see what I can get on Bryce Harper in his home park.
The MLB All-Star Game no longer determines World Series home-field advantage, so it might be worth looking at the Over (though it was only 2-1 in 2017 in the first year after MLB dropped that silly rule).
The Open Championship (aka British Open) tees off Thursday, and assuming you’re not returning before then, this is the time to make your bets. With the rejuvenated boost to Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson from their proposed $10 million match, they might be worth fliers: Woods is 20/1, Mickelson 40/1. The Open is always wide-open. Among the top contenders, I see the most value in Englishman Justin Rose at 17/1, but possibly the best value on the board looks like 2015 British Open champ Zach Johnson at 75/1.
Dave Tuley is senior reporter at VSiN and his news articles appear on VSiN.com while his handicapping pieces are in VSiN’s online magazine, Point Spread Weekly.