The math that may have cost Matheny his job

Baseball is back Thursday, with the Cardinals visiting the Cubs in a rivalry showdown that will be nationally televised by ESPN. That matchup got a

lot more interesting when Cardinals manager Mike Matheny was fired just before the All-Star break.

Was the firing justified? St. Louis entered the break 48-46, four games out of a wild-card spot. Run differential was favorable at +11. Far from a disaster.

But for a franchise that expects playoff-caliber results every season, there were reasons to believe the game had passed Matheny by. If you’ve been following the sport closely, you know MLB is evolving toward increased bullpen use and high strikeout counts.

And those poor rankings are despite the fact that Busch Stadium has been a pitchers’ park this season, reducing offense by 7 percent.

Matheny is a former major league catcher, so you’d expect him to do a good job with the pitching staff. But he had been the St. Louis skipper for more than six seasons. He may not have been evolving with the game. And it’s not uncommon for a veteran manager’s relationship with his players to grow stale.

Teams often respond well to managerial changes, particularly when talented rosters say goodbye to a veteran they’ve tuned out. Be sure you monitor level of play and intensity in these first three series after the break (five games at Cubs, three at Reds, three at home vs. Cubs).

They are divisional testers vs. opponents who have been thriving lately. A statement will be made one way or another.

Jeff Fogle will appear on The Edge from 10 a.m.-noon through Friday on VSiN.com and SiriusXM 204.