FUND OR FADE?
Where to find betting value as MLB comes out of the All-Star break
L AS VEGAS — The MLB AllStar break is a great time to look back at the first half of the season and see if there’s any betting value left in the futures.
As all the teams are close to having played 60 percent of their games, it’s not as simple as looking at who has done the best and expecting the same moving forward. The sports books already have adjusted the odds on teams such as the Astros, Red Sox and Yankees.
We’re looking more for teams that the oddsmakers haven’t adjusted on — or who the public hasn’t fallen in love with — yet. Let’s go division by division:
AL EAST
The Red Sox lead the Yankees by 4¹/2 games with the division champ likely battling the Astros for the No. 1 seed and the loser having to play in the wild-card game. The value has been sucked out of both teams in individual games. The Yankees are only even money at William Hill to win the AL East. If you really think they’re going to catch the Red Sox and avoid the wild-card game, the 9/2 World Series price at William Hill may be more appealing.
AL CENTRAL
The Indians are running away with this division by so much that William Hill isn’t even offering futures at this time. (By comparison, one book in Las Vegas — the Westgate SuperBook — has the Indians at -10000 (you bet $100 for every $1 you want to profit.) The Indians are a tempting 8/1 to win the World Series at William Hill. The one team still offering value day-to-day is the Twins.
AL WEST
The defending-champion Astros have a five-game lead over the Mariners and an eight-game lead over the A’s, but the A’s intrigue me. They have been among the hottest teams, even though I keep hearing people say they can’t catch the Astros. I’m not so sure they can’t, if they continue like they’ve been playing. They’ve won their past six series while going 15-4 against the Tigers, Indians, Padres, Indians again, Astros (taking three of four from Houston with the only loss being the wild extra-inning loss on July 10) and Giants. I took a shot on the A’s at 60/1 at William Hill just before noon Tuesday. I’m not sure how long that will last as most books offering division prices have A’s around 20/1 to 30/1. I’m hoping oddsmakers don’t adjust quick enough on them as I’ll be looking to back them when available as underdogs.
NL EAST
It seems everyone is on the Nationals’ bandwagon, fueled by Bryce Harper’s high-profile Home Run Derby victory (they’re 5¹/2 games behind the Phillies and yet 7/4 to win the NL East at William Hill). I’m sorry, but that’s too much respect given to a team that is 48-48. They obviously have the roster to be much better, so why haven’t they flipped the switch earlier? I’d love to bet against them winning the division, but you’d have to choose quickly be- tween the Phillies at 3/2 and Braves at 7/4. Instead, I’m going to be fading the Nationals every game coming out of the All-Star break, at least in their first two series hosting Atlanta and visiting Milwaukee, as I believe their lines will be overinflated daily.
NL CENTRAL
I’m a lifelong Cubs fans, so that part of me is thrilled as the Cubs have moved into first place. However, the handicapper part of me looks at the odds and sees that one of the best bets on the board is the Brewers to win the division. (They are as high as +450 at some places in Las Vegas, but only 5/2 at William Hill.) The Brewers are trailing by 2¹/2 games and are in second place only because they lost their past six games before the break while the Cubs won their past three.
NL WEST
The Dodgers lead the Diamondbacks by a half-game. If you believe the Dodgers are superior and a sure thing — there’s no such thing, even with Manny Machado — the division price on them is -300 at William Hill. I give the Diamondbacks a shot at 7/2.