Hamels payoff may not come 'til playoffs

ESPN sure loves showing the Cubs vs. the Cardinals! That’s the Sunday night TV game (again). The rivalry also was showcased as the only Thursday matchup right after the AllStar break.

What more can we say about the Cubs and Cardinals? Let’s talk about Chicago’s recent acquisition of starting pitcher Cole Hamels. That’s a new development. How much of an impact should late-season moves like this have on the futures market?

Did Chicago significantly improve its championship hopes? Should bettors jump on Hamels because he’s now surrounded by better teammates?

Generally speaking, the public overreacts to late-season trades. You’d be surprised how little most starters move the needle when changing rosters. Their basic skill-sets don’t improve.

They’re often stepping into a lineup or rotation that was already getting the job done. Sometimes they’re moving from a home park that helps them to a home park that hurts them.

In the case of Hamels, there’s some good news for Cubs fans:

Hamels is leaving a brutal home park for pitchers.

Late-season Wrigley Field weather often favors pitchers.

Hamels is moving from the DH league to face less-potent lineups.

Hamels’ stats are very likely to be much more impressive as a Cub than they were as a Ranger this season (4.72 ERA, 4.18 xFIP, 1.81 home runs allowed per nine innings). Your task as a handicapper is to determine whether or not the market has properly adjusted for this dynamic. It’s possible Hamels’ stats get better, but the market still overprices his Cubs starts because of career reputation.

It’s a tougher call on the futures prices. Hamel at his best makes the Cubs’ rotation more dynamic. Sharps are likely to take a wait-and-see approach, betting the Cubs at series prices in the playoffs if Hamels does prove to be an impact performer.

This is an approach all bettors should consider for any late-season acquisition. Focus on the market’s response to the trade. Prepare to attack series prices in the postseason rather than taking any flyers on low futures returns that don’t reflect true odds.

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