Why the O/U for Jets vs. 'Skins is so low

Despite all the superlatives surrounding a very strong debut from Sam Darnold, betting markets have posted one of the lowest Over/Unders of Week 2 in Thursday night’s exhibition battle between the Jets and Washington. William Hill currently has the total set at 39 ¹/2 points. Only Chiefs/Falcons is lower at 39.

Half the games this week are at 41 or higher. This represents a huge marketwide rise from last week, after Overs bettors cashed 11 of 16 tickets last week against totals centering in the 36-37 range.

Why is the total in Jets-Redskins so low? First, both the Jets and Redskins scored 17 points last week with team passing stats that were very similar.

Both coaching staffs appear to be emphasizing safe, conservative passing (just 13 incomplete passes combined) and relatively low volume. Throwing 27 passes may seem like a lot in an exhibition, but just four offenses threw fewer than 27 passes last week across the whole NFL (Saints, Texans, Seahawks and Cardinals).

Also, both coaches have been trending Under in recent preseason action. That’s in line with conservative passing approaches mixed with an emphasis on defense. Both Todd Bowles and Jay Gruden are 1-4 to the Under this season and last in exhibitions, with Jets games averaging 27.6 ppg and Redskins games averaging 34.0 ppg.

Washington did go Over 37 ¹/2 last week in a 26-17 loss to New England. But the Patriots had a 1-yard touchdown drive after a long fumble return. Washington’s defense allowed just 4.4 yards per play.

These numbers explain why the Over/Under is one of the lowest in the league this week. Handicappers will have to determine for themselves if the market price is still too high.

Crazy things can happen when backups are on the field, and there’s little margin for error if both offenses show improvement.