Browns support, Eagles skepticism evident in Week 1 lines
Interesting market developments for the Eagles and Browns, who square off Thursday night on Fox in this week’s first dress-rehearsal game of the exhibition slate. Not talking about that game though, rather about some telling harbingers for their regular-season openers!
In two weeks, the Eagles will open the defense of their Super Bowl championship at home against the Falcons. Philadelphia had been laying 3 ¹/2 or 4 points in that game through the summer. The line dropped to -3, influenced by last week’s minor shoulder injury to quarterback Nick Foles. Foles is already cleared to play vs. the Browns. Yet, that line vs. Atlanta hasn’t moved back up off the key number yet.
Cleveland’s been getting sharp support all summer, be it on regular-season win totals (currently 5.5, with an Over of -130 at William Hill) or in exhibition games. Now, the Browns’ regular-season opener at home against the Steelers has seen a drop at many stores from +6 down to +5 ¹/2.
“Surprise” Super Bowl champs can carry celebration hangovers into the next season. Sharps may be betting that expectation. So far, so good. and Thursday’s price already is fairly extreme. Has Cleveland, off an 0-16 season, improved so much it should be laying a field goal to the league champs in a dress rehearsal?
Oddsmakers and sharps are looking at Thursday’s quarterback matchups. For the Eagles, Carson Wentz is still out; Nick Foles is sore and went just 3-of-9 for 44 yards last week; Nate Sudfield has thrown three interceptions in the preseason; and Joe Callahan is inexperienced.
Sluggish. Plus, the Eagles enter the week with just two healthy running backs. Can a proven offensive “system” keep them close in the second half with mistake-prone Sudfeld?
Meanwhile, the Browns will be using Tyrod Taylor, who is 9-of-12 for 121 yards in two games; Baker Mayfield, who is 18-of-33 for 287 yards; and experienced veteran Drew Stanton.
Taylor’s job has been to run a safe offense that showcases running back Carlos Hyde. That’s why he’s thrown so much less often than Mayfield. The Browns have been sharper than the Eagles, but have just a 1-1 record straight up and ATS to show for it (beat the Giants, lost to the Bills).
If this were a regular-season game, the Eagles would be priced similarly to the Steelers, laying around 5 ¹/2 to 6 at the Browns. Has the market overcompensated? That’s the question handicappers must answer in sports betting’s first challenge under the dress-rehearsal spotlight.