NFL BETTOR’S GUIDE
Jags D will be too tough for Giants
BLEZOW back in the house for a 25th season of handicapping NFL games in the Post’s Bettor’s Guide. When I started in this space in 1994, Bill Belichick was coaching the Browns, who became the Ravens ... today’s Browns didn’t exist, nor did the Panthers, Jaguars or Texans ... the Raiders played in LA, the Rams in Anaheim ... Eli Manning was starting his rookie season on the bench and 16 current Giants teammates weren’t even born.
And that’s where we start the 2018 season, with the Giants, who are banking that a resurgence from Manning at age 37 will be fueled by 21-year-old Saquon Barkley. The Giants selected the do-it-all running back No. 2 overall out of Penn State and allowed Sam Darnold to go to the Jets on the next pick. Time will tell if that was a good decision.
For now, the addition of Barkley, return of Odell Beckham Jr., a rebuilt offensive line and arrival of Pat Shurmur as coach offer the promise of a much-improved Giants attack. In theory, Barkley will open the field and Manning will have time to throw to an array of dangerous weapons. The reality on opening day may be quite different, though. A few days ago, GM Dave Gettleman changed out 13 percent of the roster that made the “final” cut. Someone on the new O-line is going to have to block Calais Campbell and Yannick Ngakoue, who combined for 26.5 of the Jaguars’ 55 sacks last season, or else Manning will be in a familiar position — on his back.
The Jaguars should have been in the Super Bowl, but the coaching staff got skittish in the second half and they gave away a double-digit lead to the Patriots. They’re a tough test for these (almost)-all-new Giants. Probably a bit too tough. The pick: Jaguars -3.
Steelers (-4) over BROWNS: The Browns will be better than the 1-31 team of the past two seasons, but that notion and Le’Veon Bell’s absence are baked into the reasonably small spread. Ben Roethlisberger is 21-2 in his career versus the Browns and amazingly has more wins in Cleveland since 1999 t han a ny Browns quarterback.
49ers (+ 6 ¹ /₂ ) over VIKINGS: Most of this came in garbage time at the end of last season, but there’s respect here for Jimmy Garoppolo’s career 7-0 mark as a starter. Even with Kirk Cousins a moderate upgrade over Case Keenum. the Vikings might find it tough to get back to last season’s level of intensity and dominance.
Bengals (+3) over COLTS: Andrew Luck returns, but to a new Frank Reich system the whole Colts offense has to learn. A lot went wrong last season for the Bengals, who bring back a lot of playmakers on offense and up front on D.
RAVENS (-7 ¹/₂) over Bills: Both teams went 9-7 last season, but the Bills made the playoffs despite a minus-57 point differential and the Ravens missed with a plus- 92. It isn’t just that Nathan (Five Interceptions in a Half) Peterman is starting, but that the Bills’ offensive line is projected to be a sieve.
Buccaneers (+ 9 ¹/₂ ) over SAINTS: Jameis Winston’s suspension added maybe 1¹/₂ to two points to the spread, and Ryan Fitzpatrick’s presence might give the Bucs a better chance to stay within the number. Saints have had so many slow starts to recent seasons, they’ll be happy with any-size win.
Texans (+6¹/₂) over PATRIOTS: Last September’s matchup, a 36-33 New England win at Gillette, may have been the game of the year in the NFL. The Texans went south not long after, due to injuries to Deshaun Watson and J.J. Watt. Now it’s Houston’s best against possibly a slightly eroded version of the Patriots.
Titans (- 1 ¹/₂) over DOLPHINS: Not very high on either of these teams for 2018. The Titans have a new coach in Mike Vrabel, and that means a transition period. The Dolphins have Ryan Tannehill returning, but is that a good thing? At least there are a lot of Titans players who got a taste of a road playoff victory. Chiefs (+3¹/₂) over CHARGERS: There’s a lot of hype for this Chargers team, maybe a little too much. Count this pick as an “ante” to see what athletic quarterback Patrick Mahomes can do with all of these other Chiefs playmakers.
Seahawks (+3) over BRONCOS: Rookie Bradley Chubb joins the Broncos defense, and Keenum is an upgrade over what they’d been putting out there at quarterback. However, Russell Wilson (NFL-best 34 touchdown passes in 2017) is tough to pass up here with points.
PANTHERS (-3) over Cowboys: It’s going to take a while for Dak Prescott to process all of the changes at wide receiver and tight end. Panthers made the tourney last year and rate an edge slightly higher than the small spread.
CARDINALS (-1) Redskins: The return of fantasy football legend David Johnson is huge for the Cardinals, who also will put more emphasis on defense with new coach Steve Wilks. Alex Smith will figure out quickly how good he had it in Kansas City.
Bears (+7¹/₂) over PACKERS: Unlike with the Chargers, I am buying more into the pro-Chicago sentiment. Whether Khalil Mack plays in Week 1 or not, his new teammates will be fired up by the big trade and the expectation management really is going all out to win. MONDAY
Jets (+ 6 ¹ / ₂ ) ove r LIONS: Jets have a new franchise QB in Sam Darnold and Lions have a new coach in Matt Patricia, so you can throw away a lot of history. Have been impressed with Darnold’s quick reads and accuracy, and counting on him to keep the Jets in this. Bonus pick: The Under, in honor of O/U Rico, who departs the Bettor’s Guide after more than 30 seasons.
Rams (-4) over RAIDERS: Oakland players must have the opposite feeling after the trade of Mack, as in “What are we doing?!” Rams are loaded and should be ready to start fast after playoff no-show versus Falcons.
BEST BETS: Rams, Jaguars, Cardinals.
LOCK OF THE WEEK: Rams.