Sharp's silence on Lions amounts to a nod to Jets

If you’ve been following the NFL betting markets all summer, you know that the Jets have been +6¹/2 at most shops around the world for weeks in Monday night’s season opener in Detroit.

Even after it was announced that rookie Sam Darnold would be the starting quarterback. Six-and-a-half.

That’s a very important number for “market readers” when it’s frozen for a long time — crystal-clear evidence that sharps do not like the favorite. Football fans know how important the number seven is in this sport. That’s the value of a touchdown and a PAT, and a common final victory margin. Only three-point wins are more common.

If professional wagerers see an opening line of 6¹/2 and they like the favorite, they’re going to pounce immediately below the key number. There was no pounce on the Lions, even against a rookie quarterback, at least at global markets through the week. (You may see line movement at New Jersey shops on game day because an area team is involved.)

This tells us that the sharps think 6¹/2 is too high, and they’re hoping the public drives the number higher so Jets +7 comes into play. If pro bettors don’t act on a favorite -6¹/2 , you know they’re going to jump on the opposing ’dog +7 because it’s a key number.

How to handle a frozen line of 6¹/2 is one of the key factors that separates sharps from the general public. Casual fans want to lay 6¹/2 points because they can easily see the “superior” team winning by at least a touchdown. They also want to bet that team on the money line because they figure “there’s no way” a team laying that many points is going to lose the game outright. Worse, they’ll include that team in money-line parlays (where you only ask teams to win outright) for the same reason.

Favorites of 6¹/2 points lose more often than you may believe: Be careful betting them. Don’t bet them on the money line. Don’t use them in point-spread parlays.

Don’t use them in money-line parlays.

Don’t use them in six-point teasers. Teasers are bets where you get to move the line six points in your favor on multiple games, but you have to win all your choices to cash the ticket.

Underdogs in the 4¹/2-to-6¹/2 range win outright a lot more often than casual bettors realize. That doesn’t mean the Jets will do so Monday, with this being a tough ask of a rookie quarterback on the road. But sharps have enough confidence in Darnold and the Jets that they’re not betting the Lions at -6¹/2 .

As we’ve discussed before, you can learn a lot about team perceptions by what isn’t happening in the market.

Enjoy “Monday Night Football”! VSiN will catch up with baseball’s playoff chase the next two days in here in The Post.

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