New York Post

The best strategy for making money on Yanks

- By JEFF FOGLE

Our weekly check on the Yankees sees the Bronx Bombers inserting Sonny Gray back into the rotation so that other starters can have some extra time between outings. That could prove important to Luis Severino (Tuesday’s original starter), who no longer can be considered the staff ace.

How is that possible? When VSiN started these reports a couple of months ago, we were talking about how Severino had broken the market. He’d pitch well, then hand off to a lockdown bullpen to handle the last six-to-nine outs. Give that combinatio­n average run support, and betting tickets were going to be cashed. The Yankees went 18-2 in Severino’s first 20 starts. Oddsmakers couldn’t make them -900 every game!

Let’s compare Severino to Masahiro Tanaka. Convenient­ly, a recent 11-game sampling tells the story. That’s when Severino lost his form and when Tanaka returned from an injury layoff.

If you’re not familiar with WHIP, that’s walks plus hits allowed per inning pitched. Severino has almost doubled Tanaka in home runs allowed, with peripheral stats that would suggest you wouldn’t want Severino anywhere near the mound in a one-game playoff.

It’s nice to have the luxury of knowing you’ll be in a wild-card game three weeks in advance. That will allow the Yankees to stack the deck as needed whether that game ultimately is played at the Stadium, in Oakland or even in Houston.

If you’re a Yankees fan, or of the belief that their lineup is well-suited to get the job done in October when the offense will be healthy and the pitchers set in “all hands on deck” mode, the best “futures” strategy is still to wait until the playoffs arrive before betting. Let’s review that for those of you new to this feature:

Don’t bet current futures odds, because they don’t reflect true value. What you see on the futures board rarely offers a fair return. Sports books post those knowing that avid fans will back their teams even at poor prices.

Bet the Yankees to win their wild-card game at what should be an affordable onegame money line. Severino’s recent fall from grace will actually help you get a better price whoever starts.

Take that return (investment and profit if they win that game), and bet it on the Yankees to beat Boston at an underdog price in the divisional round.

Take that return (if they beat Boston), and bet it on the Yankees to win the ALCS (probably at near pick-’em vs. Cleveland, or definitely as an underdog vs. Houston).

Take that return (if they reach the World Series), and bet it on the Yankees to beat the NL representa­tive.

The Yankees would have to run the table either way. Going step by step returns more, and allows you to call off the dogs with a profit should there be a major injury or other developmen­t that changes your mind in advance of a new series. More profit, more flexibilit­y.

Sharps rarely bet future odds, particular­ly with high-profile media teams. VSiN and The Post want you to think like a sharp!

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