Beware 'cheap point' in figuring NFL totals
Heading into Thursday night’s AFC North showdown between the Ravens and Bengals, it’s important for handicappers and bettors to know that neither offense was as explosive as their Week 1 final scores made it look.
Baltimore scored 47 points in a slaughter of Buffalo, but gained only 369 yards on 5.0 yards-per-play in the process. Cincinnati put up 34 points, but enjoyed some scoring luck in Indianapolis thanks to a late fumblereturn touchdown. The Bengals gained only 330 total yards.
Both teams were part of a “cheap points” trend that was prevalent all over the NFL last week. There were a dozen non-offensive touchdowns (defensive or special teams returns) league-wide. That’s about twice the normal number for any random week. There were also an additional seven offensive TDs that came on drives of less than 20 yards (typically set up by turnovers or long kick returns).
Part of the Ravens’ feeding frenzy were TD drives of 1 and 14 yards. That’s why the market Over/Under for this game sat at 44 much of the week even though the teams combined to score 81 points in their season openers. Many of the most important market influences read box scores.
And, they also know the skill sets of the quarterbacks. ESPN’s “Total QBR” calculations do a good job of evaluating a cross section of skills. Both Flacco and Dalton have been mediocre the past two
They’re almost joined at the hip. Opposing defenses know what’s coming, And, these two teams in particular know what’s coming from veteran rivals because they see each other twice a year in divisional play. (By the way, many sharps use 2¹/2 points for home-field advantage in divisional games rather than the traditional three because of familiarity with the sites … and road teams did go 3-1 ATS last week in divisional action).
Looking ahead to the weekend, be sure you double- and triple-check your offensive evaluations from last week to make sure they weren’t polluted by cheap points. Offenses can’t count on field-position breaks every week. You want to invest in teams that can be trusted to move the ball while protecting it. Only two offenses last week topped 380 yards while committing one turnover or fewer: Tampa Bay (529 and 0 at New Orleans) and Washington (429 and 1 at Arizona).
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