Brace for ‘progress’
THE jaw-dropping outcomes in many of Thursday’s primary elections has political pros and journalists trying to interpret the message voters sent in sweeping out six of the eight exmembers of the Independent Democratic Conference — and what it portends for the future.
Once again, Gov. Cuomo proved that he is the ultimate political animal. Like many pundits, I scoffed at the “UnDemocrat’s” sudden embrace of progressive policies he used to question. Little did we know that he had sensed that the blue wave would be a powerful tsunami washing away Democrats who didn’t tack leftward.
Caught unaware, many of his former IDC allies became casualties while Cuomo waited out the storm.
Cuomo’s comfortable victory was in part made possible by Cynthia Nixon’s inability to erode his base, despite the pay-to-play trials surrounding his economic-development programs and his campaign errors. He held her to the same percentage as Zephyr Teachout in 2014.
But on the local level (from Syracuse to the city to Hempstead), an overwhelming turnout by an energized electorate wanting progressive change swept away a historic number of incumbents in the Senate and Assembly — in favor of younger, mostly female fresh faces.
If, as expected, a larger blue wave in November costs state Senate Republicans their slim majority, Cuomo will face more than a few Senate Democrats who can’t wait to exercise their inner socialists. Come January, the conference will have fewer moderates and seven brand-new, energized progressives intending to hit the ground running. That has Republicans and moderate Democrats worried that New York will become just like California.
The last Democratic majority (2009) put the “d” in dysfunctional government. The conference was so riven by ideological and ethnic factionalism that two senators plotted with the Republicans to engineer a short-lived coup. But lasting damage was done.
Those Senate Democrats weren’t prepared to lead or govern. Their handling of the budget process and policy was painful to watch. Now Sen. Gustavo Rivera, who ousted one of the coup plotters, says the true litmus for the Class of 2018 will be its ability to govern.
Led by the six IDC giant-killers, plus the enigmatic Julia Salazar, that class will go to Albany with a long progressive wish list: a millionaires tax, stronger rent control, singlepayer health care, ending cash bail, decriminalizing marijuana and, of course, redistributing resources.
For sure, Democrats will be tempted to add billions more in education and health-care funding and implement regulations hostile to emerging tech businesses.
That would be a mistake, because over the last decade and a half, billions in additional education aid have barely moved the student achievement needle. And it’s the tech economy that offers the best opportunity for our young people.
Where will Cuomo stand with Democrats in complete control?
Will Senate leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins and Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie act to tamp down the excesses of the young lefties — joining Cuomo to trip the brakes on the crazy train? Or will they team up and pass a legislative package to pre-empt subjecting their policy priorities to budget negotiations? Imagine both houses passing legislation authorizing tuition assistance for “dreamers” and other progressive items landing on Cuomo’s desk in time for Valentine’s Day.
Or will Cuomo want to do just enough to burnish his progressive bona fides for a 2020 run?
One Albany watcher believes Cuomo will go along, “perhaps drawing the line at single-payer . . . but millionaires tax certainly.”
If things go awry, he won’t have Senate Republicans and the IDC to blame. Then we’ll see if Cuomo has the chops to take the heat for unpopular policies he helped to craft.