How to know if Ohio St. is really any good
It’s possible Ohio State entered the 2018 college football season with an easy schedule that got even easier in the past two weeks.
Sure, playing TCU in Arlington Saturday night has a chance to provide a real challenge (ABC, 8 p.m.). And, a trip to Happy Valley to play Penn State on Sept. 29 is going to get the juices flowing. But, Appalachian State took the Nittany Lions to overtime on that same field in a statistical dead heat two Saturdays ago.
Before the season began, an Oct. 20 road game at Purdue had a chance to be interesting. The Boilermakers improved so much last season. This year’s Purdue team is 0-2 vs. Northwestern and Eastern Michigan.
Nov. 10 at Michigan State? No sure things in East Lansing. But, Utah State almost won there two weeks ago, before Sparty lost as a road favorite at Arizona State. Michigan is the annual regularseason finale? The Wolverines were bullied by Notre Dame before scoring a late touchdown to make the scoreboard look more respectable.
Handicappers and bettors trying to get a true read on the Buckeyes may be looking through foggy glasses for a while. And, this is a volatile team in the best of times. Last year’s version impressed late with win/covers over Wisconsin in the Big 10 Championship game and USC in the Rose Bowl. But that was after regular-season losses to Oklahoma and Iowa … with the Iowa debacle missing the point spread by a stunning 52 points.
Ohio State could create an illusion of being equal to Alabama this year by steamrolling a soft slate. Or, the Buckeyes could actually be as good as Alabama and the other eventual Final Four teams. We just won’t know for sure until January.
To begin evaluation of Ohio State’s true championship potential, we suggest focusing on the following stats in projected September testers vs. TCU and Penn State: Yardage differential Opponents’ yards-per-play Opponents’ completion percentage Opponents’ interceptions thrown You know the offense has talent. Can the defense disrupt good opponents? Last season’s early home failure against Oklahoma featured a yardage loss of 490-350, a yards-per-play-allowed mark of 6.8, with Baker Mayfield completing 77 percent of his passes without throwing any interceptions.
It’s pretty safe to assume Ohio State won’t be facing the 2018 Heisman Trophy winner this week or at Penn State. But those are road games, and last year’s awful defensive stats against OU were compiled as a seven-point home favorite in Columbus when Ohio State was ranked No. 2 in the country.
Iowa’s putrid offense (which finished 2017 ranked 117th), won yardage 487-371 on 7.0 yards-per-play and 66 percent completions with no interceptions when hosting the Buckeyes last season.
If there are skeletons in OSU’s 2018 closet, those categories are where you’ll find them.