Don't rate Darnold - or any QB - by passing yards alone
Sharps are paying very close attention to Jets rookie quarterback Sam Darnold. Long-time bettors know it’s toughest to beat the markets when established veterans are on the field. There’s little mystery about their skill sets or typical performance levels. Rookies? Get a read on a new starter before the rest of the market, and you can cash some tickets.
Entering Thursday night’s nationally televised game in Cleveland against the Browns, Darnold has performed within a normal range of expectations. In Detroit, a game manager versus an opposing favorite that didn’t give him enough respect; versus the Dolphins, a mistake machine as a favorite against a divisional rival that wasn’t going to take him lightly.
Casual fans who look only at the volume of passing yards tend to miss the real offensive priorities of current football. Sure, 334 passing yards versus Miami is better than 198 passing yards at Detroit. Sharps are looking at these differences: Elite modern offenses move the ball successfully while limiting risk. They also run clock in a way that keeps their own defenses as fresh as possible. Raw passing volume by itself never got the job done. That’s as true now for Matthew Stafford or Philip Rivers as it was for Dan Marino or Dan Fouts. This past weekend, the losing team had more passing yardage than the winning team in 11 of 15 games (one tie).
This reality can be a danger for fantasy football players who also try to bet into pro football markets. Quarterbacks who are valuable for fantasy purposes (touchdown passes and yardage volume) can be money losers for bettors (interceptions leading to cheap points, erratic drive times that keep their own defense on the field too long).
If you want to emulate the most successful pro football bettors, focus on the fundamentals as you watch JetsBrowns and action throughout the season. Which quarterbacks can put points on the board without giving any away? Which can grind out clock with a lead? Which make the lives of their own defenses easier rather than more difficult?
The “go” sign to bet Sam Darnold regularly will be when he shows consistent efficiency. In the meantime, look for opponents that will give him a chance to do that on a one-game basis. Detroit did. Cleveland, potentially drained from playing two straight down-to-the-wire thrillers, just might.