Heavy favorites can leave your wallet light
Sports books rejoiced last Saturday because highly regarded big favorites all over the college schedule failed to cover their point spreads. The general public loves laying chalk (Las Vegas slang for favorites because point spreads originally were written on chalkboards at legal betting establishments). It cost them dearly. Here are some examples, ordered by the size of the spread:
Compounding matters, the public also likes putting high-profile teams in parlays. Those pay off at better odds, but you have to sweep to cash your ticket. So, if you had a three-team parlay with two winners and Oklahoma, you lost. A four-teamer with three brilliant picks and Ohio State? Loser.
Wait … it gets worse. A hot recent fad at sports books involves casual bettors putting together “money line” parlays where the chosen favorites only have to win their games straight up. Put a bunch of those on a ticket, and it feels like free money.
The public thinks favorites never lose. Until Wisconsin plays poorly versus BYU, or Auburn fails to put away LSU.
Risking a flag for piling on … the one underdog the public agreed on last week was Boise State at Oklahoma State. That short ’dog was bet so hard it became a small favorite. Boise State lost, 44-21.
It’s very important for relatively new bettors to realize there are no shortcuts. And, if there were shortcuts, they wouldn’t involve betting all the highly ranked teams everyone else also wants to bet on. Oddsmakers shade their lines against obvious public sentiment, often posting numbers a half point, a point, or even higher than is justified by talent and skill-sets.
Maybe a line that “should be” -14 is -14¹/2 or -15. Maybe a line that “should be” -21 is -22 or -22¹/2. That gives sports books extra points in their pocket in addition to the 11/10 vigorish charged on losing bets. You’re likely getting the worst of it when betting “public” favorites (Alabama might put that theory to the test this season). Parlaying those favorites just magnifies the number of points you’re giving away.
If you’re thinking about favorites today, be sure you can justify a bet beyond thinking “They’re going to kill ’em!” Some ranked teams are still overrated. Those that haven’t been so far are about to become overpriced as sports books mount new defenses against media hype. Bad strategies will cost you sooner or later. Sometimes they can break you all in one day.