THE PLAN FOR NOW
Hardball’s strategy for Amazin’s wins in 2019 without sacrificing future
WHAT HAS 138 starts, a 3.29 ERA and averages better than a strikeout an inning? Moment to think about it. Answer: The combined 2018 rotation work of Jacob deGrom, Steven Matz, Noah Syndergaard, Zack Wheeler and Matt Harvey.
If told in March those would be the totals, a Mets fan would have cleared out October for playoff watching. Instead, Harvey’s best work came after being traded to the Reds on May 8. Still, the other four have so far amassed 111 starts, a 3.00 ERA and 9.6 strikeouts per nine innings. If you knew just that in March you would have assumed, at minimum, wild-card contention. Instead, it is another finish in the Mets Zone — seventy-something wins for the eighth time in the past 10 years.
That is just enough wins not to be terrible and, thus, just enough to con yourself that if this guy didn’t get hurt and that guy played a little better this would be a playoff team. The optimism or self-delusion (take your pick) has been the Mets’ operating principle. I suspect whomever is hired to run baseball operations will be asked to see the roster as half full. Thus, whatever else is involved long term to turn the Mets into a consistent beast, the orders will be to win in 2019 — but don’t spend much to do it (so forget about Manny Machado).
If forced into that box, I would tell ownership to listen to trade offers for the starters, and if, for example, the Padres are willing to build a quality four-prospect trade around Fernando Tatis Jr. for Noah Syndergaard or the Reds want to do so with Nick Senzel, then the Mets should be open for business. If not, my advice would be to try to win led by the four starters recognizing how unlikely that health and performance will repeat in this area in 2019. I think, for example, that deGrom is the majors’ best pitcher. I also think he will never again have as dominant a season as this one.
Nevertheless, the rotation is the team’s strength, and if the orders are to win, then don’t weaken it immediately, upgrade elsewhere and wait to see what kind of team you are in July. With health, the four main starters will not lose significant trade value between now and July 31, 2019.
As of now, the Mets have roughly $125 million committed to next season in guaranteed contracts and projected arbitrations for 14 players, assuming Wilmer Flores is tendered a contract and Travis d’Arnaud is not. Two of those players are David Wright, who is not playing next year, and Yoenis Cespedes, who is not expected before the second half, if at all. That duo is owed $44 million in 2019. It is not publicly known how much the Mets would get back via insurance if Cespedes were to miss a long period, but it is $11.25 million of Wright’s $15 million 2019 pact.
Either way, I think a new GM should say that if the orders are to win in 2019 then the Mets should have a top-10 payroll, which would mean being allowed to spend roughly $40 million in the offseason toward 2019. I would protect the best of the system, such as Justin Dunn and Andres Gimenez, and an emerging group they believe will play at Low-A next year, headed by Jarred Kelenic and Ronny Mauricio, to think big picture. For the small picture it will take spending in these three areas:
1. Late-game reliever
Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo are part of the puzzle, and the Mets will hope Anthony Swarzak rebounds or that they could trade the $10 million owed him for 2019 and a 2020 buyout, probably for a similar bad contract. They have liked the potential upside of Drew Smith and Daniel Zamora. But I would argue they need two established relievers, but probably will be priced into one.
My top target would be Zach
Britton, who in the past month has shown he is beyond his Achilles tear and back to being a ground-ball machine. He does not turn 31 until December. Interest will be high, so I think he at least mimics the three years at $52 million Colorado gave Wade Davis last offseason. And Britton probably gets four years.
Because he is 33, David Robertson will not get as much, but he is still superb and New Yorkproven. Adam Ottavino will turn 33 in November. Last offseason, the Brooklyn-born righty used an industrial space in Harlem to refine his control and discover a cutter to become one of the majors’ most valuable relievers. Jeurys Familia remains a very good major league reliever, though the Mets are probably queasy about a reunion.
The top free agent will be Craig Kimbrel, but I would be concerned about going to the peak of the market with a closer whose walk and homer rates have risen significantly in 2018, even while he remained overall elite.
2. Multi-positional bat
The Mets are going to be at the mercy of believing in the late-season performances of Jay Bruce, Jeff McNeil, Amed Rosario and Michael Conforto, that Brandon Nimmo was not a one-year wonder and that Todd Frazier can rebound. They need a hedge, and there are three good switchhitting, multi- positional free agents in Eduardo Escobar, Marwin Gonzalez and Jed Lowrie.
I wouldn’t dismiss Lowrie, but he is older and doesn’t have outfield reps like Escobar and Gonzalez. I see this player for the Mets as someone who is in the lineup every day, but if suddenly, say, midnight strikes for McNeil or Frazier’s slide continues or you pretty much have an injury anywhere, there is a legitimate option to step in to one spot.
After the 2014 season Lowrie signed for three years at $23 million and after 2015, another versatile switch-hitter, Ben Zobrist, got four years at $56 million. Somewhere in the middle — three years at $33 million with a fourthyear option — sounds about right for Gonzalez or Escobar.
Lower cost free agents such as Daniel Descalso and Steve Pearce plus St. Louis’ Jedd Gyorko, who is owed $ 13 million for 2019 (including his 2020 buyout) and I suspect will be very available, also could fill this role, but not as well as Escobar/Gonzalez.
3. A legitimate catcher
D’Arnaud never stayed healthy enough to show if he could be a frontline guy, and I can’t see the Mets tendering him to find out if 2019 would be the year — unless they do so because they know they could trtrade him at the projectedjected price. Kevin Plawecki is a backup. The Mets need a main man at a poposition not easy to find.
Because of the dearth of quality,ity, I suspect the No. 1 free agent catcher, YasmaniYasm Grandal, could get similar to the f ive years at $82 millimillion Russell Martin received afterafte the 2014 campaign, sisince Grandal would bbe younger and a switch-hitter with a better power bat.
Wilson Ramos is 14 months older wwith a worrisome injurinjury history, but his bat is real. JonathanJ Lucroy is a year older than Ramos and his offense has plummeted the past two years, bubut he is well regarded for defense anda leadership. The Mets have tto come away with one of these guys.
If not, wouwouldt he always costconscious conscious Pi Pirates look to get out of the last ye year of Francisco Cervelli’svelli’s deal (($11.5 million 2019). His concuss concussion history is scary. When it comescom to other former Yankees, wouwould the Mets believe a rebound possible for Brian McCann, whwho is a free agent, or Martin, who has lost his starting job and is ddue $20 million next year, of which Toronto probably would eat plenty to make him tradeable?
But catcher might be the area, in particular, the Mets should splurge. Or maybe they should remember they are a New York team and end up with Grandal, Britton and Gonzalez and stop living in the 70s (for wins).