What '18 win totals say about next season's O/U picks

There won’t be time next week to review performances for 2018 MLB regular-season win propositions. Baseball lovers will be focused on the playoffs. Luckily, virtually all of these betting props already have been decided.

The Yankees made it Over the consensus market estimate of 94 ¹ /2 wins with a Saturday victory versus Baltimore. The Yankees had better keep winning with home field in the wild-card game still very much at stake in this final week of action.

The Mets have no chance to get to oddsmaker estimates of 81 wins. Under bets will cash. Suspense is limited to three teams.

The Marlins were supposed to be the 2018 doormat for all of MLB. Betting markets pegged them for 64 wins. The Marlins finished this past weekend with 62 victories. They clearly have a shot to get there, but all games in the final week are on the road.

The Tigers had a horrible season, but still could still top their market estimate of 68 if they win all remaining games. Unfortunately, those are also all on the road.

The Cubs generally were at 94 ¹ /2 or 95 wins in the betting marketplace. Topping . 500 in the final week of action would push them over the top. This is a popular betting team in the global marketplace (particularly in Las Vegas), so a lot of fans will be sweating this one.

Most of the other top National League contenders already have topped their market projections: The Braves flew over 74 ¹/2 , Rockies cleared 83, Brewers moved past 84.5, and Cardinals snuck past 86 this past weekend. There will be no cash for backers of the Dodgers, who can’t reach 96 wins even if they win out.

In the American League, the playoffbound Red Sox (92), Astros (96 ¹/2), and A’s (75) will reward Over backers. The Indians (94 ¹/2) have no chance, already locked into an Under no matter what happens this week.

Though final records won’t be set in stone until the end of action Sunday, the Orioles are the disaster of the 2018 season. They were projected to win 73, but would need a fantastic final week just to reach 50 victories. Washington is the biggest disappointment amongst projected powers. The Nationals were supposed to capture the NL East with 93 wins, but have hovered within an arm’s reach of the .500 mark for several weeks.

Lessons for making smart picks next season? If more projected non-contenders continue to embrace “ignore the present and build for the future” mentalities, you should be thinking about Unders for teams posted in the high 60s or low 70s. In fact, teams projected to win 73 ¹/2 or less already have registered a 1-5 performance to the Under in 2018 pending the Marlins and Tigers. The Orioles (73), White Sox (69), Reds (73 ¹/2 ), Royals (71) and Padres (70) will stay Under. The Pirates are the lone winners, already having cleared their market target of 73.

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