Garoppolo injury takes Niners down with him
EVERY world-ending disaster flick has a catalyst, an inciting event — be it a meteorite impact, alien invasion, some doomsday climate scenario, a Hollywood comeback by Pauly Shore.
For the San Francisco 49ers, that initiator of catastrophe was a scramble by QB Jimmy Garoppolo that resulted in a season-ending knee injury. His knee buckled like a skyscraper in an apocalyptic earthquake. He bounced off a defender and hit the ground like a rogue comet that crossed paths wit h Earth. And now we have to watch as the volcanic fallout slowly chokes the life out of the 49ers’ season, smothering the fantasy hopes of surrounding players.
It is a Roland Emmerich-scale calamity. The big-screen master of disaster — who has directed a series of campy world-ending films like “Independence Day,” “Day After Tomorrow” and “2012” — couldn’t have scripted a more dire fantasy scenario.
Recall, t he 49ers were 1-10 when Garoppolo inherited the starting job last season. They f inished 6-10. They had scored 15 points or fewer in seven of their 11 games before Jimmy G. They scored 25 or more in four of their last five.
Marquise Goodwin had three of his four best games with Jimmy G last season. Matt Breida’s three best career games came in the final two games of 2017 and Week 2 of this season, all with Garoppolo.
Barring an unlikely and shocking turn of events, C.J. Beathard will be the starter for the foreseeable future. From a fantasy perspective, this is sort of like combining a global superstorm with a volcanic eruption during an alien invasion. With Garoppolo, the 49ers averaged 27. 1 points over nine games. In f ive games with Beathard as a starter, they averaged 14.8. The fewer points a team scores, the fewer fantasy points players on those teams score.
This is particularly true for those on the receiving end of Beathard passes. Niners WRs collectively averaged nine more fantasy points per game with Garoppolo than they did with Beathard. George Kittle, the only tight end of fantasy interest, averaged 7.3 with Garoppolo and 3.4 with Beathard.
There is a sliver of good news. Running backs scored more with Beathard. The top two RBs during this period averaged a combined 10.1 with Garoppolo but 13.5 with Beathard.
Yet Breida was just coming into his own this year, from backing up Carlos Hyde last season to leading the NFL in rushing entering Week 3. His breakout now could be postponed, but don’t drop him or Alfred Morris because a rise in carries should offset a drop in efficiency. They can still be fantasy contributors, even with a lower ceiling.
Downgrade Marquise Goodwin to a bye-week Flex option until he proves otherwise. Pierre Garcon had been disappointing thus far, so expect about the same.
For Garoppolo replacements, don’t trade the farm for a new QB. Instead, plow waivers for Andy Dalton, Baker Mayfield, Josh Allen or Ryan Tannehill and be prepared to stream week to week. No need to make a disaster worse than it is.