Mahomes for MVP? Let's wait and see
In less than a month, Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes went from “Is he ready?” to the bettingmarket favorite to win the 2018 NFL Most Valuable Player award. Fans and bettors get their first national TV look at Mahomes on Monday night when the undefeated Chiefs visit the divisionalrival Broncos on ESPN.
While Mahomes has posted amazing stats through three games (a stunning passer rating of 137.4, an average just below 300 passing yards per game, and a 13-0 touchdown/interception ratio), there could still be some skeletons in the closet that will be visible before Halloween. Let’s see if we can find any.
First key to remember is that rules changes have helped quarterbacks this season. That’s likely to change the standards we’ve grown accustomed to for measuring excellence. Whatever constitutes “MVP caliber” is likely to be a huge step forward from recent stat thresholds. And, it’s going to take a lot bigger sample size than three games to get a true sense of that.
Next, young, very mobile quarterbacks have started out well in recent early looks, only to fall back to earth once opposing defenses have learned their tendencies. As we discussed recently regarding Deshaun Watson, effectiveness for this prototype can wane after leg injuries reduce escape-ability.
Mahomes debuts at the convergence of his own peak mobility, against defenses that haven’t seen him before, in a world with friendlier rules for quarterbacks. He might be a stat machine for awhile.
The obvious statistical step is to look at his opposing defenses. Those stunning early numbers become less impressive if he was facing bad pass defenses compared to the rest of the league. Let’s see what passing lines other quarterbacks have posted versus the Chargers, Steelers and 49ers:
No surprises on the list. Mahomes is a lot more dynamic than Taylor, much more game-ready than Allen, and less “out of control” than guys like Fitzpatrick and Stafford are allowed to be in shootouts.
There’s nothing wrong with betting Mahomes game-by-game until the league and market show signs of figuring him out. The Chiefs have beaten the spread by 13, nine and five points in their three win/covers. You can see the market closing in. Let’s hold off on the MVP talk until December!