SCOUTING TH
The Post’s Joel Sherman goes deep with the help of baseball insiders to break down Oakland
IF THE Yankees looked in the mirror, they would see the A’s — albeit at a lower price point.
Both teams rely on power — up and down their lineups and throughout their bullpens. The Yankees led the majors in homers, the A’s were third. The Yankees’ bullpen ERA was fourth in the majors at 3.38, the A’s third at 3.37.
But drill down to the second half, when the A’s soared into wild-card position and nearly caught the Yankees for home field in Wednesday’s game. The Yankees led the majors in homers after the All-Star break, but it was just six more than the A’s (106-100), and Oakland actually had the majors’ best slugging percentage (.465) and OPS (.804).
The A’s 3.17 pen ERA was the majors’ best (the Yankees were 19th at 4.35), and that was despite pitching the second-most innings to protect a rotation mainly built of castoffs. So, these are not the Twins, who reached the wild-card game last year because so many other contenders collapsed. Minnesota led 3-0 after a half inning against the Yankees, but the Twins did not have the kind of bullpen Oakland has to protect a lead, and lost.
The A’s were 70-2 when leading after seven innings, 79-2 when leading after eight — and both losses came in the last week.
“You do not want to play from behind against Oakland,” a scout said. “They can bring one arm after another and lock you down.”
With the help of three scouts and an AL executive — all of whom saw the A’s plenty this season — here are key elements to Wednesday’s sudden-death game:
RIGHT STUFF
Relying on the pen is standard for the A’s, but makes particular sense in this game. Because Oakland’s relief corps is filled with power righties and so is the Yankees’ lineup.
The A’s relievers generally do well against lefties, too. But the Yankees have key hitters such as Gary Sanchez and
Giancarlo Stanton, who are more vulnerable to right-on-right power stuff, so expect to see a lot of Blake Treinen, Yusmeiro
Petit, Jeurys Familia, Lou Trivino and Shawn Kelley. The additions of Familia, Kelley and Fernando Rodney (below) from the trade deadline on took Oakland’s pen from good to exceptional and deep.
“They have a lot of velo sitting in the back of that bullpen,” Scout 1 said. “Fernando Rodney was closing in Minnesota and is sixth on their depth chart. Sure he is 40 years old and not in his prime, but I wouldn’t be scared to give it to him to close. Their names in the pen may not be as sexy names as the Yankees, but these are big, impressive arms.”
Stanton has a real challenge in this game. In his career against the A’s six primary relievers (Treinen, Kelley, Petit, Familia, Rodney and Trivino), he is 4-for-42 with two walks, 24 strikeouts and only one extrabase hit — a double off Treinen.
Treinen was a reliever the Yankees had interest in when he was a National, and his full potential was realized this year, when he had a season on par with Dennis Eckersley in 1990 or ’92. Among pitchers with 60 appearances, the best ERAs ever are: 1. Zach Britton, 2016 (0.54). 2. Rodney, 2012 (0.60). 3. Eckersley, 1990 (0.61). 4. Treinen, 2018 (0.80). All but Eckersley will be available in this game, and Eckersley will actually be in the ballpark in the TBS broadcast booth. Depending heavily on his 98-mph sinker, Treinen allowed just two homers in 80 ¹/3 innings, struck out nearly 32 percent of those he faced and, in the division era, the only reliever with 80 innings and an OPS against lower than Treinen’s .417 was Eric Gagne in 2003 (.374). Treinen faced 161 righty hitters. They managed one homer and a .362 OPS. Remember the pitcher Roy Oswalt? He had a .362 OPS — as a hitter. “I’d be surprised if [the Yankees] do not see two innings of Treinen,” Scout 2 said. “He always had good stuff and now as a player he’s gained confidence to use and trust the stuff. Most pitchers have to throw chase pitches to get outs, this guy can get outs in the zone because the stuff is so dynamic.” Still, Yankees hitters better make sure to make him throw it over the plate. This was from Scout 3: “If by miracle you keep the bat on your shoulder, that [sinker] is likely to escape the zone down. But it is coming 97-98 mph and you do not have the luxury of making these decisions with time on your hands. It is a Catch-22. You want to be aggressive to catch up to his velo, but if you make contact you are doing him a favor, because you will mainly hit it into the ground, you will produce quick outs and he suddenly will have an easy five-, six-out save.”