HEY CFP: TECH THAT!
WE DON’T know how it will end, but we can pretend. The sport encourages it: assigning rankings before seasons start and making projections for players who last touched the field in high school.
Even though October is in its infancy, it’s easy to see there may not be enough room in the playoff for every team deserving a seat.
Alabama is undefeated. So are Georgia, Oklahoma, Clemson, Ohio State, Notre Dame and eight others.
Sure, it could all end neatly. But if you believe that, you haven’t been paying attention.
In the first playoff, one-loss Ohio State was controversially chosen over one-loss Big 12 co-champions TCU and Baylor. Last year, the only undefeated team in the nation (Central Florida) was left out, while Alabama, which didn’t reach its conference championship, won the national championship.
This season, Clemson has just one ranked team left on its schedule (No. 23 North Carolina State). Notre Dame also faces just one more ranked team (No. 24 Virginia Tech). Ohio State just passed its toughest test, at Penn State. Oklahoma lost Heisman Trophy winner Baker Mayfield and nothing has changed this year. Alabama may somehow be the best it ever has been. Georgia could enter the SEC Championship as the No. 2 team in the nation.
The system is designed to fail. There are four spots. There are five power conferences. Even if only one or two teams go undefeated, the committee could face an even worse dilemma because the Pac-12 would come back into play, and Central Florida’s case — though clearly futile — would become stronger.
The Fighting Irish make it most complicated. If the sport’s most legendary brand goes undefeated, they are in. They already
have beaten their two toughest opponents (Michigan, Stanford), and the Irish only have grown stronger since inserting quarterback Ian Book.
VIRGINIA TECH (+6) represents the committee’s best chance to simplify the situation, and the combination of Lane Stadium, Irish injuries, and an underrated Hokies defense puts the upset in play.
The Irish will squeak by. The committee won’t be so fortunate. Tulsa (+18) over HOUSTON: Stranger things have happened. Last year, Tulsa was a 14-point underdog — and won, 45-17. Georgia Tech (-3½) over LOUISVILLE: There will be blood. The Cardinals are already allowing 168.8 rushing yards per game and have never faced the Yellow Jackets’ triple-option before. Oklahoma (-8) over Texas (at Dallas): Maybe next year. The Longhorns have become a popular Big 12 sleeper after winning four straight, but Texas’ emerging defense hasn’t faced an attack like Lincoln Riley’s.
Alabama (-35) over ARKANSAS: Nick Saban began the week by calling this a “trap game.” Well, there goes the only reason to take Arkansas. Kansas (+28½) over WEST VIRGINIA: Can’t Bill Self and Bob Huggins face off instead? Maryland (+17½) over MICHIGAN: The Terrapins (4-1) have had two weeks to prepare since a 42-13 win over Minnesota. With another few weeks, maybe Maryland can figure out how to fire D.J. Durkin. A kid died. This shouldn’t be hard. Clemson (-181/2) over WAKE FOREST: Trevor Lawrence is fine. The Tigers will be, too, following the injury and the upset scare against Syracuse.
FLORIDA (+2½) over Lsu: Joe Burrow is completing 53.4 percent of his passes. The percentages are far higher he’ll be throwing his first interception — or more — in the Swamp against a talented Gators secondary.
MIAMI (-13½) over Florida State: This will make Wide Right feel like a Swedish mas-
sage. The Hurricanes haven’t beaten their rivals by double-digits in 17 years, but it has been decades since the Seminoles were so ripe to be embarrassed on such a consistent basis. OHIO STATE (-261/2) over Indiana: Athletic rosters similar to Indiana’s, such as Penn State’s and TCU’s, have given the Buckeyes fits. Ohio State’s other three opponents have been beaten by an average of 46 points. CENTRAL FLORIDA (-24) over Smu: The Knights will keep the pedal to the floor all season. Having a Heisman contender (McKenzie Milton) and the nation’s longest winning streak isn’t enough for their critics.
Kentucky (+51/2) over TEXAS A&M: Vegas knows the Aggies don’t actually play with a 12th man at home, right? Vanderbilt (+261/2) over GEORGIA: Kirby Smart will rest his stars in the second half. After this week, the Bulldogs travel to No. 5 LSU, then face No. 22 Florida, No. 13 Kentucky and No. 8 Auburn. Auburn (-3½) over MISSISSIPPI
STATE: The Tigers are rarely as sharp away from home, but already have received two of the toughest tests in the nation this season, in which they beat Washington and lost to LSU on a last-second field goal. The Bulldogs, meanwhile, have stumbled in back-to-back SEC games against Kentucky and Florida and have yet to beat an FBS team that averages more than 18 points per game. Washington (-21) over UCLA: Chip Kelly lost a total of four games in his final three seasons at Oregon. In his return to the NCAA, the Bruins (0-4) have lost by an average of nearly 21 points per game, featuring the 119thranked offense in the nation. Now, they meet the No. 1 scoring defense in the land.
BEST BETS: Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Kentucky THIS SEASON (BEST BETS): 39-45-1 (8-7) 2014-17 RECORD: 518-471-10