Rout gives Patriots more market respect

It only took a week for the NFL betting market to correct. After pricing the Patriots as the equivalent of just four better than the Dolphins on a neutral field, odds now show the perennial AFC power back near the top of the ladder heading into Thursday’s game versus the Colts.

Midweek betting patterns suggest the Patriots will go off as 10- or 10¹/2 -point favorites. Because Indy and Miami have been priced comparably this season, we can call that a 3- to 3.5-point adjustment off the Patriots’ 38-7 rout of the Dolphins (449-172 in total yardage, 6.0 to 3.8 in yards per play).

Here’s this week’s estimate of “market” Power Ratings as evaluated by VSiN. Jonathan Von Tobel and I make a good faith effort to capture a moving target as the season evolves.

If you weren’t with us last week, we allot three points for home-field advantage, then create a couplet in each game based on the point spread. With the Patriots currently -10 at most U.S. and global sports books, we have to place them and the Colts seven points apart on the scale. We went with 85 and 78 as the most logical spots.

We have both the Jets and Giants in the league’s bottom five this week — a true challenge to capture how the market sees disappointing 1-3 starts for both.

Jets are -1 at home versus the Broncos, which would mean two points worse on a neutral field than a team that’s been overrated thus far. Giants are +7 at Carolina, which means four points worse than the Panthers.

Jacksonville was a challenge for us this week. The Jaguars were just -7¹/2 versus the Jets this past Sunday, meaning five points better on a game-day scale. They are currently +3 at Kansas City, virtual neutral-field equality with an up-and-comer getting serious respect in futures prices. We went with 85 for both.

We’ll try to update these ratings for you periodically when the market adjusts on contenders. The NFL’s efforts to put league powers on Thursday night TV has allowed us to delve into this approach the past two Thursdays. We strongly encourage each of you to create your own estimates of the market based on developing point spreads through the season, and then your own set of numbers based on how you believe the teams rate in terms of quality.

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