ON THE UP & UP
Profit by targeting teams scoring more points the right way
What are the important sports betting developments in the first month of the 2018 NFL season?
First and foremost, rules changes in the offseason designed to make the game safer are definitely helping offenses. That’s so obvious to the naked eye, there’s no reason to bury you in numbers. Scoring is up, yardage is up, yards-per-play are up. As you handicap pro football games the rest of the season, Job One will be evaluating which teams are best taking advantage of the new reality, and which are currently ill-prepared.
Imagine what’s going to happen once defenses start getting tired. Cumulative fatigue from a grueling season hasn’t set in yet.
That said, it’s important to keep the increase in proper context. Don’t fall into the trap of remembering the most boring low-scoring games from recent seasons, then comparing them to the most exciting shootouts of 2018. That will trick you into expecting too many fireworks shows and betting too many Overs.
A great way to pin down true impact is to focus exclusively on offensive points scored on long drives. Take defensive or special teams’ return points off the scoreboard. Take out cheapies set up by turnovers or long kick returns. Look only at the ability of offenses to drive the field for points. I’ll use an arbitrary cutoff of 60 yards or more to define a “long drive” in pinning down this skillset. How much have points per game (the two teams combined) increased on long drives in the first month of action?
In 2016, there were 28.1 points per game scored on drives of 60+ yards; in 2017, it dipped to 25.6. This season, it has increased to 31.0. There are exactly 63 games in all three samples through four weeks. Scoring on long drives is up a bit more than five points per game (slightly more than 2.5 points per team) from last season, but only a field goal from two seasons ago.
So, shootouts are more common, stats are surging for certain individual stars. But we didn’t jump from 1960s era smashmouth in the mud to arena-ball video games with the rules changes.
Are the Rams so well-suited to the new environment that they’re the clear front-runner to win the Super Bowl this coming February in Atlanta? That’s the next betting question to answer. The markets say yes. After a 4-0 start (3-0-1 against the spread), the Rams now have the shortest Super Bowl odds of all top contenders, despite playing in the deeper NFC.
The problem with jumping on that bandwagon with both feet is that the Rams haven’t played any games outside of California yet. Opening the season at ill-prepared Oakland was a gift. The toughest test against last season’s NFC runner-up Minnesota was a seven-point victory over a defense that made Buffalo’s Josh Al- len look good. It’s possible the Vikings have taken a couple of steps backward this season.
Yes, the Rams are on the short list of legit contenders. Are they the clear head of the class? Better to wait on interesting road tests coming up against Seattle’s defense Sunday, at Denver on Oct. 14, at New Orleans on Nov. 4, and at Chicago on Dec. 12. Avid NFL fans already have circled two big home games vs. Kansas City on Nov. 19, and vs. Philadelphia on Dec. 16.
No trophies are given for being the champions of September.
At the other end of the spectrum, fans betting legally for the first time at New Jersey sports books have to deal with the fact that the Jets and Giants already seem left in the dust in this evolutionary tick toward fast-break football. Both squads are 1-3 against the spread thus far. How can you support your favorite team if you’re going to lose money 75 percent of the time?
Jets rookie quarterback Sam Darnold may develop into a star, but he seems to be in over his head currently. Veteran Eli Manning has been throwing so many short passes that broadcasters are running out of “dink and dunk” descriptors. And, he’s still sack bait anyway.
The Giants rank 25th in total offense, the Jets 29th. In passing yards, it’s Giants 20th and Jets 27th. Each quarterback has thrown a total of four touchdown passes through four games. Easy math, one per game. Only the Cardinals, Bills and Broncos are worse.
It’s a great time to be a sports handicapper and bettor because pro football is literally evolving before our eyes. If you can anticipate new realities before the market, you can cash tickets all through the season. As VSiN’s Brent Musburger says, that’s what it’s all about.