Trends show Oct. surprise
Forget bullpens, starters & power are keys to victory
BOSTON — In a year when rotation work was never minimized more and at the time of the season when bullpens are maximized a funny thing is happening so far in October:
The team with the better starter is winning.
Masahiro Tanaka versus David Price was the 12th game this month — two play-ins to decide the NL Central and NL West and 10 playoff contests — and pretty much the team that had the superior starter won each time.
Bill James created a stat called Game Score that in one number consolidates items such as hits, walks, strikeouts, innings, etc. The team with the starter that had the better Game Score won 10 of the first 11 games this month and in the only one that it did not, Colorado’s Tyler Anderson (one run, six innings), had a slightly better Game Score than Milwaukee’s Jhoulys Chacin, in NL Division Series Game 2, but Chacin (five innings, no runs) was still terrific.
The meaningful work of starters — think Kyle Freeland, Hyun-jin Ryu, Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Chris Sale — is one of three trends that have stood out early in October. What are they and what do they mean for the Yankees? STARTERS: The ability to hold down an opponent to create cover for your team is always vital — particularly when runs are more precious at this time of year. The team that has scored first in 11 of 12 October games has won, including 9-1 in the playoffs.
Research done by MLB Network Senior Editorial Director Elliott Kalb shows that teams which scored first in the 2018 regular season won 67 percent of the time. It is 72.9 (35-13) the past two playoffs and 71.4 (135-54) in the postseason since 2013.
The Yankees are 74-17 (playoffs included) when they scored first this year, 28-46 when they did not. In the wild-card game, Aaron Judge hit a two-run, first-inning homer, Luis Severino held down the Athletics early and the Yankees won. In Division Series Game 1, J.A. Happ surrendered a first-inning three-run homer to J.D. Martinez and the Yankees lost. In Division Series Game 2, Tanaka badly outpitched Price and the Yankees broke out to a 3-0 lead en route to tying the series.
HOMERS: Through the first 12 October games, the team that hit the most homers was 7-1, including 6-0 in the postseason (there were four games in which the same number of homers was hit by both teams).
When good pitching is making it even harder to score than during the regular season, the need to get the ball out of the park goes up. During the season, homers accounted for 40.2 percent of runs. It is 51.7 in these playoffs.
The Dodgers managed 10 hits in their first two Division Series games against the Braves, but five were homers (plus two doubles), so combined with Ryu and Kershaw dominating, they lead the series two-games-to-none.
The Yankees had 10 hits in Game 1 against Boston, but the first nine were singles before Judge homered leading off the ninth. They threatened often in the game, but lacked the big blow to come all the way back. In Game 2, they hit three homers, accounting for five of their six runs in a win.
For better or worse, they are the team that set the major league record for homers in the regular season. If they want to go deep in these playoffs, they will have to go long. They are 2-0 now in this postseason when they hit more homers than their opponent.
Since the onset of wild cards in 1995, teams that have outhomered their opponent in a playoff game are 407-132 (.755 winning percentage), including 57-11 (.838) by the Yankees.
HOME: The home team was 8-2 in these playoffs, 9-3 if you include the play-in games — the Cubs had two losses at Wrigley before the Yankees won at Fenway on Saturday. The Cubs (in the play-in game) also were the only team to outhomer its opponent and lose a game this October.
Night and day does not fully define the Yankees’ home versus road results the past two playoff seasons.
They are 7-0 in The Bronx, outscoring their opponents by 28 runs. Even with Saturday’s win, the Yankees are 2-7 on the road in the same time frame, having been outscored by 11 runs.
The Red Sox winning a team-record 108 games and the AL East despite a 100victory season from the Yankees vitally gave them home field for this Division Series. The best home records in the majors this year: 1) Red Sox 57-24. 2) Yankees 53-28.