Top - 10 bloodbath not an October surprise
Don’t let the polls pick your games! Casual bettors learned that lesson the hard way last Saturday. Though No. 1 Alabama was able to cover its point spread against Missouri (barely), nobody else in the Associated Press Top 10 got the money.
In fact, most of the perceived powers missed the market by so much that they also spiked the kind of props “squares” (market slang for the public) love betting.
For years, the public has loved putting big-name teams in “teasers” that move the line six, seven, or 10 points because those smaller lines seem so easy to cover. (“Sure, Notre Dame -21 against Pittsburgh seems like a lot, but the Irish will definitely win by at least 11.” Wrong!)
More recently, it has become very popular to string together favorites in “money-line parlays” in which all the selected favorites have to do is win their games straight up. Betting one favorite by itself on the money line seems expensive. But, when you start parlaying them together, an illusion of value is created. (“No way Penn State loses outright at home to Michigan State. I’ll stick the Nittany Lions in a money-line parlay.” Wrong again!)
All of these ranked teams lost outright last Saturday (using last week’s rankings): No. 2 Georgia (-7¹/2) lost to LSU, 36-16 No. 6 West Virginia (-5 ¹ /2) lost at Iowa State, 30-14
No. 7 Washington (-3) lost at Oregon, 30-27, in OT
No. 8 Penn State (-14) lost to Michigan State, 21-17
Just outside the Top 10, No. 16 Miami (-7) fell to Virginia, 16-13, and No. 21 Auburn (-15¹/2) was shocked by Tennessee, 30-24.
Other Top 10 teams won straight up, but were overpriced by the market. No. 10 UCF (-5¹/2) had to rally from way behind just to eke out a 31-30 win over Memphis. No. 5 Notre Dame (-21) failed to even score the point spread in a 19-14 win over Pitt. And No. 3 Ohio State (-30) didn’t perform like a four-TD favorite against Minnesota, scoring only the spread itself in a 30-14 win over Minnesota.
It’s difficult to find betting value with ranked teams, particularly in a “dead” month such as October, when the excitement of September has worn off, while the urgency of November is still a few weeks away.
They’re always priced to perform at a high level because the public wants to bet them. As we discussed recently in a VSiN feature, it’s either “favorite or pass” for the general public as it scours the card. Sports books aren’t worried about getting flooded with underdog money against Ohio State, Notre Dame or Penn State.
We’re not saying favorites never cover. But, finding the blowout or laugher is more of a “needle in a haystack” scenario than casual bettors realize. Generally speaking, ranked teams are overpriced. And, that means you’re not picking up as many points as you imagine when playing teasers. Nor are you getting anything resembling true odds on money-line parlays.