IT'S A TRAP
LA’s Roberts manages to dupe himself by sticking to flawed plan
BOSTON — Simplest explanation: The Red Sox are much better. Those 117 wins (and counting) were not delivered by elves, but by excellence.
So perhaps even perfect managing against them might not stop what has felt more and more inevitable since March 29 — a Boylston Street parade.
But imperfection — whether on defense or with indefensible strategy — opens trapdoors to doom, particularly against Boston’s unforgiving offense. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts is opening trapdoors.
Roberts is bright and part of a high-level, think-tank-like Dodgers front office that stands out even when the sport in general is way more intelligent than ever. But there may be an element that leads to outsmarting yourself.
So much goes into the planning and so many of the strategies are predetermined well before first pitch that it often feels as if the game has been managed in advance with minimal reaction to real-time realities. I wonder if bench coaches should be seen-it-all veterans who are precluded from strategy sessions so as not to be inundated with the same data. Their job would be to watch the game unfold and pretty much scream at the manager: “Do you see what I see!?”
If so would, for example, Aaron Boone have stuck on consecutive nights to a preplanned hope that Luis Severino and CC Sabathia could retire Jackie Bradley Jr. when so much damage was ongoing before Bradley ever came to the plate? And would Roberts — among many other things — really have trusted Ryan Madson on consecutive nights, especially without somebody ready to come in instantly Wednesday in World Series Game 2 if Madson turned sour yet again?
Roberts had predetermined that Madson would be the get-me-outof-crisis guy in this series. But he allowed both runners (first and second, no outs) inherited from Clayton Kershaw in the fifth inning of Game 1 to score, moving Boston ahead for good. He inherited bases loaded, two outs in the fifth from Hyun-Jin Ryu in Game 2 and all three scored as a 2-1 Dodgers lead became a 4-2 defeat that gave the Red Sox a two-games-to-none lead in this World Series.
“You talk about things before the game happens and I just felt again Madson was the right guy in that spot,” Roberts said.
Roberts described Madson as “our guy for quite some time.” Got it. That is why he should be in Game 1. But the poor pitching and the short-season nature of this time of year means Madson either should not have been in essentially the same spot twice in 24 hours or a reliever should have been warming so that when he issued what even Roberts called “an uncharacteristic walk” to Steve Pearce (in which the four balls were not close to strikes), forcing in the tying run, Roberts would have had a backup option. Instead, Madson gave up a decisive two-run single to J.D. Martinez. Five guys inherited in two games; all five scored.
“To get a guy [Madson] that has pitched in four World Series and has performed all postseason for us, to have a bad night prior, to then have someone behind him, another right-hander, almost protecting yourself against him not being able to throw a strike, he shouldn’t be in the game anyway,” Roberts said. “If I had any thought to have [Pedro] Baez or somebody behind [Madson], then he was the wrong guy.” He was the wrong guy — again. This should not be viewed as beating up on analytics. They are valuable. Over the course of 162 games, if done well, it is like counting cards, in which advantages will be derived over time. But this is not 162 games. This is best-of-seven. Big data should provide a starting point, but then your guts and eyes have to matter because there are no long stretches for probability to even out. Who is hot and who is not? Now. Boston manager Alex Cora was Houston’s bench coach last year when the manager, A.J. Hinch strayed from convention and computers to go with hot starters as dominant relievers. Cora is doing the same now. Nathan Eovaldi has been among the best pitchers this postseason and Cora is trying to find ways to use him as often as possible. Starting or relieving.
Who can explain why Baez is dominant right now, but he is. Nevertheless, Roberts fatefully pulled him in favor of Alex Wood in Game 1 and Wood yielded a three-run homer. Then, Roberts did not turn to Baez, rather than Madson, at the critical juncture of Game 2.
By the time Baez pitched Wednesday, in the eighth inning, Boston already had the lead it did not relinquish. By then, the Dodgers already had managed to lose this game.