Teams separate at top & bottom
With so many storylines in play on a busy NFL Sunday, this seemed like the perfect time to get caught up with VSiN’s estimate of “market” power ratings across the league.
These aren’t computer rankings, or how one particular person is assessing the league. Jonathan Von Tobel and I use late-week point spreads to build a point scale that tries to capture how the composite sum of market influences is assessing all 32 teams.
We allot a standard three points for home field advantage (except for the games played in other countries, which are neutral). Then we try to deduce where each game “couplet” should go on our scale.
Notes from games you’ll be watching on TV Sunday:
The Giants (Fox, 1 p.m.) are now seen as four points worse than Washington given a late-week home line of +1.
Washington’s been a tough team to figure because it has exceeded market expectations the past two weeks vs. Carolina and Dallas. We went with 80 and 76.
The Jets (CBS, 1 p.m.) are one notch ahead of the Giants on our scale. We have them five points below Chicago because the Bears were getting informed money whenever that line hit the key number of -7 through the week. Market respect given the Bears prior to losses to the Dolphins and Patriots may need further correction.
New Orleans at Minnesota (NBC, 8:20 p.m.) is a quick rematch from one of the most exciting playoff finishes ever.
That last-second Minnesota win came with the Vikings favored by 5 ¹/2 points. A late-week line of Saints -1 on the same field shows you how much perceptions of both teams have changed in the new season.
VSiN strongly encourages you to study the market because that’s what you’re trying to beat when placing bets. As you enjoy Sunday’s telecasts, try building a scale that reflects how you see all 32 teams in relation to each other. That will give you a head start when next week’s point spreads hit the board.
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