Keep eye on these stats as Cavs go forward

You can’t say “lose” without Lue. Tyronn Lue was fired as Cavaliers coach over the weekend after his team fell to 0-6. As is often the case, his firing was foreshadowed by a poor performance against early market expectations.

Though, in Lue’s case, it wasn’t a bad record against the spread. The Cavs carry a 3-3 ATS record into Tuesday night’s home game against the Hawks. The problem was the covers just barely got there in expected losses, while two of the failures missed by a mile in expected wins.

Lue’s Cavs were supposed to lose decisively to Toronto, Minnesota, and Detroit. They covered the three games by a total of four points. But, they were supposed to beat Atlanta (missed by 30 points), and were given a slight nod over Brooklyn (missed by 19 points).

Through six games, Cleveland was minus 50 points in sum versus expectations, which is 8.3 points per outing.

VSiN isn’t suggesting that Cleveland owner Dan Gilbert was mad about the Cavs not covering home games. But the market is an excellent barometer of “expectations.” Point spreads literally reflect how a team is “rated.” Underrated teams surpass expectations until the line catches up. Overrated teams fail. Early returns suggested quality opponents would coast past the Cavs. Projected non-contenders bullied them.

If you adjust scoring for possession count (referred to as offensive or defensive “efficiency” in basketball analytics), Cleveland had the worst defense in the NBA when Lue was fired. The Cavs were allowing 115.8 points per every 100 possessions. Given his background as a player and coach, that wasn’t likely to get much better. In recent seasons, LeBron James was there to “outscore” what a soft Cleveland defense was allowing. Without James, this year’s Cavs ranked 23rd in offensive efficiency against a less-thandemanding schedule.

If Gilbert was also worried about entertainment value for ticket-holders, the Cavs ranked 26th in pace. Bad and boring!

Will interim coach Larry Drew be able to inspire immediate improvement? Sharps will be looking in box scores for stat indicators that emphasize defensive intensity (denying two-point baskets, forcing turnovers, grabbing rebounds) and offensive cohesion (assist/turnover ratio, overall efficiency).

If you’d like to study the same themes, here’s Cleveland’s upcoming schedule: Tuesday versus Atlanta, Thursday versus Denver, Saturday at Charlotte, Monday at Orlando.

All things considered, it’s not a bad time to transition to a new coach. Keep an eye on game lines to see what adjustments (if any) oddsmakers have made with their openers. And, monitor line moves to evaluate sharp sentiment. Those aren’t matchups that will appeal to casual bettors. Any significant line moves will represent sharp action.

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