Keep sharp eye on college hoops line movements
College basketball officially tips off its 2018-19 season Tuesday with a huge schedule.
You might be tempted to jump in right away for the TV doubleheader from Indianapolis featuring No. 10 Michigan State versus No. 1 Kansas and No. 2 Kentucky versus No. 4 Duke (ESPN, 7 and 9:30 p.m.). Unless you’ve been scouting the personnel inside and out, patience may be a virtue. Get “smarter” quickly by monitoring the markets from opening line to tipoff to get a read on how the sharps (professional wagerers) have rated teams on the betting board.
Remember, the first lines up on the board reflect how oddsmakers alone see things. Those are best guesses from men who have been buried in football the past several months, and the NBA since midOctober. And, frankly, these days, it’s the best guesses of “a few” guys offshore that are then copied by everyone else. Do you think every single sports book director at every single shop has time to properly scout teams such as Towson, IUPUI, or UC-Davis?
The sharpest pro bettors have time to do all the research it requires getting an informed read on teams. Some leave football alone and specialize in this sport. Sure, mistakes will be made. Some projected high-impact freshmen will bust. Some previously mediocre veteran teams will develop into value bets because of experience and maturity. But, over a large sampling, sharps will typically get the best of November openers.
They’re called sharps because they “sharpen” opening lines.
Will public money mess up your ability to read sharp intent? Generally, no. The public leaves most of the college basketball board alone until football ends. Maybe they’ll step in for a big TV game (though both Duke and Kentucky have large betting constituencies, so that “dumb” money might cancel out anyway). Most of the board features “sharps vs. oddsmakers.” Any line move will represent sharp interest in the team being bet, or against the opponent.
Monitor line movements through the first few weeks, and you’ll know very quickly which teams sharps want to support, and which teams they want to fade. This will give you an opportunity to exploit soft opening lines yourself. And, it will help educate you about the landscape in your favorite conference or the national picture in advance of league play.
How do you monitor the market? There are websites (including VSiN.com) that show you the current line, the opening line and all the movements in between.
If you’ve done advanced prep work, best of luck to you out of the gate. If not, monitoring the market will get you up to speed quickly.