SKY’S NO LIMIT
Low-major conferences offer plenty of good bets — and fades
THE nightly college hoops card can be a dizzying experience, particularly with so many games to consider each evening. Too often, however, we hear patrons at sports books in Nevada and elsewhere dismiss the “added games” on the slate involving entries from some of the low mid-major loops such as the Big Sky, Ohio Valley, SoCon, and Summit.
The shrewdest customers at the sports books, however, know some of the best values can be found in these added leagues, where team trends often endure for a bit longer, and angles galore pop up each season — even though they’re often overlooked by the masses.
So, as the 2018-19 college season tips off, here’s a quick primer on the more intriguing of these added leagues and specific teams to watch at the outset.
BIG SKY — At the bottom end, consider the money burner that has been Northern Arizona. The Lumberjacks have disappeared into the abyss for coach Jack Murphy, who is just 19-75 over the past three seasons and lucky his buyout prevented administrators from hitting the eject button after last season’s 5-27 debacle. After top scorers Torry Johnson and JoJo Anderson transferred out, Murphy’s only option for immediate help to fortify a talent-shy roster has been to hit the juco ranks hard and hope for the best, but we’re not sure any of those players can score at the Division I level. The situation could turn bleak in a hurry in Flagstaff; be prepared to jump in against the Lumberjacks.
At the opposite end of the Sky is Montana, last season’s Big Dance qualifier which returns six of the top seven scorers from a 26-win team. The best backcourt in the Sky — Ahmaad Rorie and Michael Oguine — returns intact, while 6-foot-8 Jamar Akoh is a force on the blocks. This might be one of the better lowmid-majors in the country, a team that didn’t lose at home last season. The Grizzlies are a clear-cut favorite in the Sky and have plenty of pre-league dates in which they could provide sneaky-good value. Watch these guys. OHIO VALLEY — The home team of the Talladega Super Speedway, Jacksonville State, fits the classic under-the-radar profile. Coach Ray Harper is an established winner who has taken several past entries into the postseason, including last year’s JSU, which won twice in the College Basketball Invitational. Though top-scorer Malcolm Drumwright must be replaced, Power 5 transfer Gs Detrick Mostella (Tennessee) and Ty Hudson (Clemson) are the sorts that can make an immediate impact in the OVC. A solid trio of senior starters also returns to the mix for what should be another Harper postseason entry.
SOCON — At the outset, it might be tough sledding for Furman. The engine room of last season’s 23-win team departed almost en masse, with three doubledigit scorers needing to be replaced by second-year coach Bob Richey, whose team might be due for a dip this term. Though the Southern Conference is not a big league, the Paladins lack presence in the paint, and need some defensive stoppers to emerge on the perimeter to camouflage the shortcomings on the blocks. A slow start would come as no surprise.
SUMMIT — Looking for a lowmajor that might crash the national rankings? South Dakota State could be your team, especially since doeverything 6-9 scoring machine Mike Daum pulled his name from the NBA draft for one more go in Brookings. The “Daum-in-ator” has proven an impossible matchup in the Summit, scoring 24 ppg a year ago when he had more help from now-sophomore G David Jenkins (16 ppg), providing the Jackrabbits a chilling 1-2 scoring punch. After winning 28 and losing a close battle in the first round of the Dance to Ohio State last March, SDSU looks to do a bit better in an expected fourth-straight NCAA Tourney trip.
Things have been trending the wrong way for North Dakota State, with decreasing win totals each of the past four years. Now the Bison must replace prolific scoring swingman Paul Miller (almost 20 ppg) with a roster featuring only two returning starters and bereft of any seniors. The relative youth suggests some growing pains, and without much presence in the paint, NDSU is likely to be more perimeter-oriented than usual. That sort of combo usually suggests a bumpy ride in November and December.
Bruce Marshall, editor of The Gold Sheet, is a frequent contributor on college football and basketball to VSiN’s Point Spread Weekly.