ORANGE TOO GREEN
WELL, at least you can fade the entire family now.
After a lengthy layoff, Mrs. Profit returned last week, sans the touch that has bailed me out in the past. So, I have accepted her letter of resignation.
Since Kid Profit won’t be ready to begin picking until next year, I’ll now return to shooting pingpong balls at goldfish bowls.
As poorly as my picks have gone this season, however, I never have looked as bad as the SEC does this week.
When the season should be peaking, the SEC, with the ego of a ninth NFL division, schedules like it’s the preseason. Alabama will pay The Citadel $500,000 for a light workout. Auburn will rest up before the Iron Bowl, paying $1.25 million to Liberty. Georgia’s playoff hopes will stay safe by giving $1.5 million to Massachusetts, while LSU will remain in the top 10 by paying Rice $1.4 million.
There is no penalty for scheduling such mismatches so late in the season. But because of it, college football in the Southeast can’t compete with the Northeast for once.
When Notre Dame versus Syracuse was scheduled, it simply seemed like a great opportunity for the strong alumni bases in New York City to catch their teams at Yankee Stadium. Instead, the matchup of the No. 3 Fighting Irish and No. 12 Orange carries the greatest weight of any game this week.
Notre Dame is used to the spotlight. Playing multiple brand-name schools every season normalizes such moments. Syracuse isn’t accustomed to the stage, having gone 17 years without double-digit wins. Dino Babers has done tremendous work turning the Orange into one of the most explosive offenses in the country, but the coach can’t prepare them for something he hasn’t even experienced.
For Syracuse, the moment will be too big. The opponent will be too strong. With Ian Book back, Notre Dame (-10½) will prove it deserves a playoff spot.
Tulane (+10) over HOUSTON: The nation’s worst pass defense isn’t going to get any better at this point. While the Green Wave have won three straight, the Cougars have lost back-to-back games while allowing an average of 52 points. NEW MEXICO (+20) over Boise State: A dreaded letdown-lookahead combination looms. After an upset of Fresno State, the Broncos will have a shot to defend their Mountain West crown with a win over Utah State next week. Ohio State (-141/2) over MARYLAND: Terrapins quarterback Kasim Hill just suffered a season-ending ACL injury, but unless it was Drew Brees, it wouldn’t matter who Maryland has under center. The Buckeyes have averaged more than 56 points in their four Big Ten meetings.
Penn State (-28) over RUTGERS: Perhaps if people in New Jersey stop pretending this is a rivalry, the Nittany Lions will let up on the gas. Rutgers has lost by a combined
102-9 in the past three years. OKLAHOMA STATE (+5) over West
Virginia: The Mountaineers may appear to be headed for a playoff elimination game against Oklahoma, but the Cowboys have already beaten two ranked opponents at home (Boise State, Texas) this season. In three road games, West Virginia has one loss and two wins by a total of nine points.
Usc (-3½) over UCLA: USC’s Clay Helton is coaching for his job. Without a win (let’s chalk up the season finale against Notre Dame as a loss), the Trojans will miss a bowl because of on-field results for the first time in 18 years.
Indiana (+28) over MICHIGAN: When one team (Michigan) has won 22 straight games in the series, and its biggest game of the season (Ohio State) is only a week away, a trap game is born. Massachusetts (+41½) over GEORGIA: Since 2014, the Bulldogs’ largest margin of victory came in this year’s 45-0 romp over an FCS team with a losing record (Austin Peay). Good luck doing that against an FBS team with a losing record. Oregon State (+331/2) over WASHINGTON: This spread must have been set before
the season started, when the Huskies were a trendy playoff pick. Washington hasn’t scored more than 35 points against an FBS foe.
Duke (+28) over CLEMSON: A down year in the ACC gives the Blue Devils (7-3) more help than they need. In the teams’ first meeting in six years, now-healthy Duke quarterback Daniel Jones will demonstrate why he’s a potential first-round pick, coming off a school-record 547 yards last week.
Kansas (+36) over OKLAHOMA: The Sooners are 0-2 against the spread this season when favored by at least 30, and a defense allowing nearly 30 points per game can’t be trusted to protect this many points.
Stanford (-2) over CALIFORNIA: The four losses suffered by David Shaw’s squad have all come against teams currently ranked in the top 20. The Cardinal remain undefeated against all others. CENTRAL FLORIDA (-7) over Cincin
nati: The No. 11 Knights earned the highestever playoff ranking for a Group of 5 team, and still have no realistic hope to make the playoff. During its 22-game win streak , Central Florida has embraced the opportunity to prove its worth in rare matchups against ranked teams, like the No. 24 Bearcats.
Iowa State (+3) over TEXAS: The Cyclones have won five straight, but the Longhorns have lost two of their past three to opponents Iowa State has knocked off (Oklahoma State and West Virginia). Arizona (+10) over WASHINGTON
STATE: Khalil Tate has gone from a Heisman Trophy favorite to a forgotten player, but the Wildcats no longer rely on the dual-threat quarterback. Coming off a bye, Arizona will continue to ride J.J. Taylor, who ranks fourth in the nation in rushing after taking 70 carries for 404 yards in the team’s two straight wins. BEST BETS: Ohio State, Duke, Stanford
THIS SEASON (BEST BETS): 76-99-3 (14-19) 2014-17 RECORD: 518-471-10