Giants have reason to fear The Beard
This may have been the worst possible NFL season for a quarterback to serve a September suspension. Rules changes made it much easier to move the ball in the air. While most veteran quarterbacks were enjoying their new-found freedom to fire, Jameis Winston of the Buccaneers was in the penalty box getting rusty. That rust never wore off. Meanwhile, backup Ryan Fitzpatrick was ideally suited to the new rules. He was experienced at reading the field and making quick decisions. He could fire the ball long when openings arose. The bearded bomber made a statement in Week 1 with an upset in New Orleans, and kept right on posting big numbers.
Tampa Bay “had” to go with high-paid Winston once he was eligible. But rust, and probably other factors, too, contributed to sloppy performances. Fitzpatrick regained the starting job in the second half of a Week 8 loss at Cincinnati. He will be in the pocket Sunday when the Bucs visit the Giants (Fox, 1 p.m.).
These numbers show why Fitzpatrick deserves to start in the battle of The Beard vs. The Bad:
Winston has thrown one more interception in 77 fewer passes. And his TD/INT ratio of minus-4 is inexcusable in this new era of extreme offense.
For a frame of reference, Fitzpatrick doesn’t quite rank with MVP candidates. His passer rating entered the week in the same neighborhood as Russell Wilson, Carson Wentz and Kirk Cousins. Winston’s is barely ahead of overmatched rookies Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen, but behind disappointments Case Keenum and Blake Bortles.
Sunday, the Giants will likely close around a 1- or 2-point favorite. Betting markets see Tampa Bay “with Fitzpatrick” as the slightly superior side, because home-field advantage is generally priced at three points in the NFL. The Giants’ defense must prepare in a short week following a Monday night victory at San Francisco. Tampa Bay is in a bounce-back spot after losing to Washington, 16-3, despite winning total yardage 501-286 on 7.5 to 5.2 yards per play. (Tampa Bay was hurt by four turnovers and two missed field goals.)
Time for a quick update of VSiN’s estimated “market” Power Ratings that are based on late-week point spreads. Jonathan Von Tobel of “Betting Across America” and I put our heads together to come up with these:
NFC: Rams 88, Saints 87, Panthers 83, Packers 82, Bears 82, Vikings 82, Eagles 81, Seahawks 81, Cowboys 80, Falcons 80, Lions 76, Buccaneers 76, Giants 75, 49ers 74, Cardinals 72.
AFC: Chiefs 87, Patriots 86, Steelers 86, Chargers 84, Ravens 82, Texans 82, Titans 81, Colts 80, Broncos 80, Bengals 78, Jaguars 78, Browns 76, Dolphins 74, Jets 73, Bills 72, Raiders 71.
Monday, we’ll take a look at the muchanticipated potential Super Bowl showdown between the Rams and Chiefs.