PHEELING STUPID
Even Philadelphia owner knows plans to spend big don’t make much sense
WHAT am Phillies? I know they are in play for Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, and maybe both, and their owner c a me out in the last week and validated all the go-for-it theories. John Middleton t ol d USA Today: “We’re going into this [offseason] expecting to spend money. And maybe even be a little bit stupid about it.’’ Let’s concentrate on the stupid for a second. Because wouldn’t you be spending record dollars as a finishing piece to a championship? Put Harper on the Phillies, is that a title contender? Heck, put both Harper and Machado on the Phillies and I don’t think that is a championship contender — unless it is for the championship of fascinating clubs or potential dysfunction. How many top-50 major leaguers are currently on the Phillies’ roster? Aaron Nola and then …? You might say Rhys Hoskins, but not as a left fielder and maybe not even at his better fit, first base. Maikel Franco and Odubel Herrera have regressed. Jorge Alfaro and Nick Williams are the best of the haul from the Cole Hamels trade, which is fine, but hardly special. Vince Velasquez is the best of the haul from the Ken Giles trade, meh. The first wave of what was thought to be a terrific minor league crop has essentially tanked — J.P. Crawford, Scott Kingery, Roman Quinn. The Phillies, according to Baseball America, have the 18thranked farm system. Today the Phillies regret the $135 million they invested last offseason in Jake Arrieta and Carlos Santana — who, by the way, is blocking Hoskins from first base. I don’t love the Mets’ roster, and yet I think I would take it over that of the Phillies. With their rotation, the Mets at least have an area of strength in which to build around. Michael Conforto vs. Hoskins for who you would take moving forward is an interesting debate — I would take Conforto. By the way, which second-year manager would you prefer? Mickey Callaway I missing about the often looked mismatched with New York and overmatched with strategy in his rookie season. Gabe Kapler is Bobby Valentine 2.0 — undoubtedly bright, but giving off something that makes him polarizing.
Even if you would pick the current Phillies situation over the Mets, is it by enough that you would recommend adding Harper or Machado on $ 300 million- plus record-type deals? Maybe.
Both are young enough that they could be part of transition years. But if the goal is to win right away — and it sure seems like that is what is on Middleton’s mind — wouldn’t the Phillies be better off spending $300 million-ish on Patrick Corbin, Craig Kimbrel, Michael Brantley and Josh Donaldson — or multiple players of that ilk — to address a roster in need of upgrading in many spots?
That at least keeps them out of the ultra-long-term, big-buck risk that would come with Harper or Machado. And the Phillies have to think a little about future financial flexibility for many reasons, none bigger than that Mike Trout — who grew up a Phillies fan — is a free agent in two years.
Middleton could be willing to write the kind of checks that import Machado or Harper plus a few more pieces now and even Trout later. The Phillies have just $14 million committed for 2021 to Herrera and Kingery. The Phillies/Middleton have been gearing for this free-agent class and giving off hints they will be comfortable growi ng toward a $200 million payroll — or beyond.
But usually just writing those checks does not create a winner. The most successful clubs construct strong cornerstones then add to them when they are ready to win. The Cubs had some key pieces in place (Anthony Rizzo, Arrieta, Kyle Hendricks) when they signed one luxury piece, Jon Lester, after a 73-win 2014.
Then they put even more in place (Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Kyle Schwarber) to reach the NLCS in 2015 before splurging on Jason Heyward, John Lackey and Ben Zobrist. The Padres won 77 games in 2014, had nothing but perhaps Tyson Ross as a building piece yet took on Matt Kemp, Craig Kimbrel, James Shields, Justin Upton and Melvin Upton. The 2015 Padres declined to 74 wins and have the majors’ second-worst record since their splurge.
Are the Phillies more the Padres or Cubs?
In part it matters what you believe about last season. Through Aug. 7, Philadelphia had the NL’s second-best record at 64-49 and led the NL East by 1¹/₂ games. Thereafter they were an NL worst 16-33 and outscored by 90 runs.
Put it together and the Phillies were 80-82, closer to the third-place Mets (77-85) than the first-place Braves (90-72). You could argue both portions of the season were a mirage. That is probably true. But the end result reflected the Phillies’ talent level — perhaps was even a tiny bit better than the talent.
Should that kind of team be in the Machado/Harper and more business? Well, the Phillies’ owner says he is ready
to do something a little stupid.