'Sharp' takes on title games

Championship Week in college football begins Friday. Here’s an outline of the major conference battles focusing on offensive and defensive rankings (yards-per-game according to cfbstats.com), strength of schedule (according to ratings compiled by Jeff Sagarin of USA Today), and sharp betting tendencies.

Note that the squad with the superior offense is favored in all five matchups. Because recreational bettors love betting on offense, that could drive late-week point spreads even higher by kickoff. We’ll take the matchups in “betting rotation” order as they appear on the board at sports books.

Pac-12 (Friday, Santa Clara, Calif.) — Washington (No. 51 offense, No. 13 defense, No. 38 schedule), has slight full-season ranking edges over Utah (No. 61 offense, No. 15 defense, No. 33 schedule). Sharps pounded Washington at early lines of -3 and -4 because Utah will have trouble driving the ball without quarterback Tyler Huntley (out with a collarbone injury) and running back Zack Moss (knee). The smart money knows Washington’s stellar defense shut down Utah, 21-7, in Salt Lake City when those two were healthy!

Big 12 (Saturday, Arlington, Texas) — Oklahoma is the most extreme team in the country. Unstoppable offense, hideous defense (No. 1 offense, No. 111 defense, No. 37 schedule). Texas has shown balanced mediocrity against a tougher schedule (No. 60 offense, No. 63 defense, No. 20 schedule). Most sports books opened just above a touchdown. It’s notable that sharps

drive the line toward the key number of seven initially. That suggests a closer around Oklahoma -8.

SEC (Saturday, Atlanta) — Alabama has been a statistical juggernaut despite resting its starters for so many quarters (No. 4 offense, No. 6 defense, No. 55 schedule). Can’t forget that Georgia (No. 13 offense, No. 12 defense, No. 28 schedule) would be seen in a similar light if not for one no-show on the road against LSU. An opener of Alabama -13 has largely stood pat. Any stores testing -13¹/2 see sharp money on the ’dog immediately. Sharps respect Georgia’s talent, and recognize its greater sense of urgency.

ACC (Saturday, Charlotte) — Clemson (No. 3 offense, No. 7 defense, No. 48 schedule) has to avoid complacency as a huge favorite over outmanned Pittsburgh (No. 80 offense, No. 69 defense, No. 19 schedule). Early money has been heavily on the favorite, with an opener near -24 now approaching -28. Sharps have been enthusiastic about Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence since he was given the reins.

Big 10 (Saturday, Indianapolis) — Ohio State has mirrored Oklahoma in extremes, but with a slightly less embarrassing defense (No. 2 offense, No. 67 defense, No. 43 schedule). Will it lose intensity (again) after upsetting Michigan? Northwestern (No. 111 offense, No. 48 defense, No. 43 schedule) may have trouble playing ball control with such a poor offense. Sharps drove an opener just below two touchdowns up to the key number of -14. It looks as if it will take public money to drive it any higher.

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