NFL favorites getting more costly to back
Real-world NFL power ratings are prone to widen in the latter stages of a season. Elite teams approach peak performance, while many bad teams are motivated to lose for draft positioning.
We’re certainly seeing that in how betting markets are pricing Week 13. Five matchups sat on double-digit point spreads much of the week. Even a potential playoff preview Thursday of New Orleans-Dallas saw the road favorite laying -7¹/2 … the equivalent of around -10¹/2 on a neutral field, or -13 ¹ /2 to -14 in the Superdome.
The cream is rising. Rocks are sinking. Keep that in mind as you read VSiN’s latest estimate of “market” power ratings. Jonathan Von Tobel of “Betting Across America” and I put our heads together each week to make a good faith estimate of how the sum total of market influences is rating teams based on lateweek point spreads.
We’ll start in the NFC to set up the Giants’ home game Sunday against Chicago. The Bears entered the weekend at -4 on the assumption Chase Daniel would play quarterback. Factor in a standard three points for homefield advantage, and the Bears must go seven points higher on our scale.
NFC: Saints 90, Rams 89, Bears (with Daniel) 83, Vikings 83, Packers 82, Seahawks 82, Panthers 82, Cowboys 80, Eagles 79, Falcons 79, Redskins 76, Lions 76, Bucs 76, Giants 76, 49ers 75, Cardinals 71.
The market doesn’t see much drop-off to Daniel from usual Bears quarterback Mitchell Trubisky. A very respected defense still puts Chicago third-best in the conference. The Giants have been priced as an also-ran all season. Its recent “surge” came against other lowlevel teams.
Moving to the AFC, where the Jets visit Tennessee on Sunday …
AFC: Chiefs 88, Patriots 86, Steelers 85, Chargers 84, Texans 82, Colts 81, Broncos 81, Ravens (with Jackson) 80, Titans 79, Browns 79, Dolphins 76, Bills (with Allen) 75, Jaguars (with Kessler) 74, Jets 74 (with a healthy Darnold), Bengals (with Driskel) 73, Raiders 70.
There are a lot of quarterback issues in this conference. Baltimore is probably 1-2 points higher with Joe Flacco than Lamar Jackson. Buffalo may be at least five points better with Josh Allen than now-released Nathan Peterman. Jacksonville and Cincinnati have new starters this week. Be sure you monitor Sunday morning markets to see how bettors respond to health reports from the Jets’ quarterback quandary.
Is the market expecting too much from the elites with these rising tides? Could it be overestimating “tank” potential for the dregs? That may be a focal point of your NFL handicapping all through December, given the number of teams in each category. If you’re the type to bet favorites, you’ll be paying a premium to back bullies or fade failures.
As always, we encourage you to compile your own team ratings on this scale. That will help you find possible weak spots worth attacking if the market misses the mark.
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