Time to bet on Nets may have come and gone
With the NBA All-Star break fast approaching, the blossoming Nets will enter the stretch drive as one of the league’s most important developing stories. They will begin their long February rest after visiting the Cavaliers on Wednesday night. The Nets won’t play again until Feb. 21 at home against Portland. Of note …
Brooklyn is still on pace to become the second NBA team to surpass its projected regular-season win total in betting markets. A target of 32 ¹/2 victories will likely be topped within a couple of weeks. Only surprising Sacramento has already reached its projection. The Nets are “arriving” much faster than the most informed betting influences had anticipated thanks to a nucleus of dynamic young talent.
The Nets aren’t a lock to reach the NBA playoffs, but are in very good shape. They’re currently slotted as a No. 6 seed. It’s unlikely multiple Eastern mediocrities could get hot and catch them from behind. It would take a collapse to fall out of the brackets.
Brooklyn isn’t likely to collapse because important contributor Spencer Dinwiddie is tentatively scheduled to return from injury in early March. Of course, other injuries could change trajectory.
The Nets’ long-term outlook is bright. Analyst David Thorpe called the Nets “a sleeping giant” on VSiN’s “Follow the Money” with Mitch Moss and Pauly Howard last week. Brooklyn is again an appealing destination for top NBA stars, with management positioned to build intelligently.
However, sports bettors must be aware that the immediate incarnation of the Nets may have sunk from “underrated” to “overrated” in market terms in recent days. A sizzling 19-7 run against the spread (from Dec. 5 through Jan. 28) fizzled into a slow February start that included double-digit outright losses to Orlando and Chicago.
VSiN won’t update its formal estimate of “market” Power Ratings until after the break, once lineups are fresh and healthy. It’s clear the Nets are still being priced as a “tweener.” They’re well below the league elites (a double-digit ’dog Monday at Toronto, and recent home underdogs to playoff-bound Milwaukee and Denver). But, they’re well clear of the dregs who are more worried about draft position than victories.
For handicappers and bettors, the most important Nets question to answer right now involves how much of this season’s success has been the result of giving peak effort in a league that wasn’t. Many NBA teams either have been pacing themselves or tanking. If playoff contenders kick things up a notch after the break — while the Nets don’t have another notch to kick up to — they might be a group to fade the rest of the way.
A team can only catch the league and oddsmakers by surprise once. That ship sailed with the 19-7 ATS stretch (turning ATS into a virtual ATM!). Make Brooklyn prove it’s a smart bet after the break. And, as you scout playoff potential, keep an eye on team defense (currently league average in points allowed per possession) and ball projection (currently bottom third in offensive turnover rate).